Civic Economy Watch

Fed Divisions Intensify

• 🔥 Dissenting Officials Rise: WSJ reports show the number of dissenting Federal Reserve officials at policy meetings...

Pending home sales climbed +1.8% m/m in February, topping the -0.6% estimate and prior -1% drop. Signals resilient housing demand.

Key signals ahead of FOMC:

• After three 2025 rate cuts, markets fully price no change this week.
• Dissent surging: Three officials dissented in...

Global debt risks are rising as interest rates stay high. OECD notes sovereign bond issuance hit record levels in 2025, expected near historic highs in 2026—straining government finances.

Latest BLS CPI report highlights everyday cost pressures:

• Gas prices surge
• Natural gas costs near all-time highs
• Ground beef sets new record
  Watch your pump and grocery runs.

Joe Kent, top US counterterrorism official, steps down citing Iran war concerns – marking the first major public dissent in the Trump administration since hostilities began.

Economic Indicators

• 🔥 NY Fed Services Index Drops: The NY Fed Services Index dropped by 4.5 points to -46.2, with prices charged down 1.1...

• No rate changes expected at March 17-18 meeting; focus on dot plot, inflation outlook.
• Services inflation remains high and concerning despite okay...

• Builder sentiment inches up to 38 in March, but elevated costs and lot shortages persist
• Mortgage rates rise again, erasing sub-6% dip and threatening US home sales
• Combo hits affordability hard, amplifying cost-of-living pressures this spring

• Oil prices range-bound, hinting at energy market stability.
• US JOLTS job openings hit 6.946M actual vs 6.7M forecast (up from 6.55M prior),...

Boeing reportedly asks suppliers to assess impacts from the Mideast conflict, highlighting geopolitical risks to US manufacturing and jobs.

• Once-labeled 'transitory' US inflation hits five years this month
• Worst outbreak in a generation
• Remains a defining economic shock shaping policy debates and uncertainty

NY Fed's Empire State Services Index plunged 4.5 points to -46.2, highlighting deepening regional business weakness, while prices charged dipped just 1.1 points to 28.8—persistent pressures amid slowdown.

Gas prices in Palm Beach County hit $4 per gallon overnight, a significant increase from previous days that's spiking local cost of living.

Economists warn surging gas prices, triggered by the ongoing war in Iran, threaten to reverse recent progress in Canada’s inflation rate. A blow to everyday cost of living.

US Gas Price Surges

• 🔥 Florida: Florida gas prices rose $0.84 in 12 days according to AAA.
• 🔥 Massachusetts: Gas prices in Massachusetts...

• Repeated shocks thwart inflation drop: core PCE at 3.1% in Jan (up from 2.6% April); new Middle East war risks oil surge.
• Economy weakens: jobs at...

• Iran in talks to allow China safe passage for crude oil and Qatari LNG carriers
• US West Coast is an energy island lacking pipelines, importing...

January US job openings hit 6.946 million per BLS JOLTS report, topping consensus of 6.750 million and revised prior 6.550 million (from 6.542M). Signals strong labor demand.

Multi-angle energy shock hits hard:

• Geopolitical trigger: Middle East tensions disrupt energy markets, with Trump eyeing Iran strikes.
• US economy...