Fed expected to resume rate hikes as inflation and oil surge

Economists and markets broadly expect a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 2026 meeting, with at least one more possible afterward. Oil above $100, 4.6% one-year inflation expectations, and Treasury yields near or above 5% are pushing borrowing costs higher and reversing earlier hopes for rate cuts. Mortgage rates will depend more directly on Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and lender pricing than on the Fed move alone.