Bond Market Stress: 30Y at 5.28%
30-year UST yield hit 5.28%, a new cycle high, extending selloff from 5.19%. Driven by fiscal dominance, AI capex demand, and term premium expansion. Foreign holdings fell $138B in March. BofA's Cabana calls the selloff a 'textbook inflation credibility shock', warning that without a credible disinflation plan from the Fed, the selloff could resume. Bond market pricing a policy mistake as Warsh's suggestion that higher yields substitute for hikes backfired.
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Updated Aug 4, 2026