Iran Geopolitical Risk and Energy Impact

U.S.-Iran peace negotiations have gained traction, with Brent crude falling 7% on de-escalation hopes. Market now prices one hike by year-end (down from two) on Hormuz deal hopes. However, Slok warns that Iran war risk remains important—zero tankers transiting Hormuz, Nice Airport jet fuel shortage—suggesting the peace talks are fragile and supply disruption risk is underpriced. Outcome remains uncertain, with potential windfall tax discussions on energy profits adding a fiscal policy angle.