Fiscal Dominance: U.S. and Global Long-End Yields Surge

The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5% and the 30-year around 5.2%-5.32%, with European sovereign yields also elevated. Inflation risk, heavy issuance, deficits, refinancing, defense spending, and higher term premia are lifting duration risk; reported $38 billion in Iran-war costs and a $2-$3 billion monthly burn rate add to U.S. fiscal and funding concerns.