Gold Selloff and Recovery on Iran Talks

Gold fell sharply in June (down ~25% from highs) as rising real yields and reduced geopolitical risk crushed safe-haven premiums. Now bouncing to $4,070 on Iran peace talks that drove Brent down 7%, easing energy-driven inflation. Technical breakout above moving averages and silver outperforming suggest broadening demand. Chinese institutional inflows are also supporting gold. Market now prices one hike by year-end (down from two) on Hormuz deal hopes, but Fed hawkishness remains a headwind. New risk: Iran's economy is nearing a tipping point with food inflation >110% and currency collapse, which could escalate conflict and disrupt oil flows, potentially boosting gold further.