Escalating Conflict in Sudan: Evidence of Ethiopia’s Covert Support for RSF and Its Regional Implications

Recent developments in East Africa have intensified concerns over the ongoing Sudanese crisis, revealing alarming indications that Ethiopia may be actively supporting Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) through clandestine drone operations and logistical camps along their shared border. These revelations threaten regional stability, exacerbate humanitarian suffering, and pose serious challenges to diplomatic efforts aimed at conflict resolution.

Emerging Evidence of Covert Support and Strategic Infrastructure

Intelligence agencies, independent analysts, and satellite imagery have uncovered a sophisticated network of clandestine infrastructure along Ethiopia’s border with Sudan. Key findings include:

• Drone Launch and Support Sites: Multiple structures resembling drone control centers and launch pads have been identified near strategic crossings. Positioned to facilitate rapid deployment, these sites strongly suggest Ethiopian facilitation of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations targeting Sudanese military and civilian infrastructure.

• Hidden Logistical Camps: Several concealed staging areas are visible, likely serving as storage points for weapons, ammunition, and supplies. These camps appear designed to sustain RSF operations, enabling the movement of personnel and equipment into conflict zones within Sudan with minimal detection.

• Strategic Border Placement: The locations of these sites near major transit corridors allow for swift movement, circumventing official checkpoints and complicating regional security measures.

The VERTEX report, an authoritative intelligence analysis, confirms these satellite findings, indicating that:

• Drone strikes originating from these sites have targeted critical infrastructure such as bridges, military bases, and civilian facilities, intensifying chaos and casualties.
• Arms transfers and logistical support are being coordinated from these clandestine locations, likely under the direction of Ethiopian military or intelligence agencies.
• Support activities have escalated in recent weeks, coinciding with RSF’s renewed offensives and territorial expansion within Sudan.

A regional security analyst commented, “The evidence strongly suggests deliberate involvement by Ethiopian actors to influence and potentially prolong the conflict in Sudan.” Such external support could violate regional peace agreements and undermine diplomatic efforts for conflict resolution.

Humanitarian Toll and On-the-Ground Reports

The conflict’s escalation continues to exact a devastating toll on civilians in Sudan:

• On the first day of Ramadan, a drone strike at a water point in West Kordofan killed at least 18 civilians, including children, according to humanitarian agencies and local sources. This attack underscores the deadly use of drones against civilian populations.
• Mass displacement is ongoing, with thousands fleeing their homes into neighboring countries, straining regional resources and complicating humanitarian aid delivery.
• Humanitarian organizations report severe obstacles in providing essential supplies due to active hostilities and security risks. Food shortages and medical emergencies are intensifying, with estimates indicating that over 21 million people in Sudan face severe hunger.
• The conflict has disrupted vital aid operations, making it difficult to deliver medical supplies and humanitarian assistance to vulnerable populations.

Military Movements and Intensified Offensives

Recent reports indicate continued territorial activity by RSF forces, emphasizing the ongoing nature of the conflict:

• RSF claims to have captured another town in Darfur, as evidenced by recent videos and reports. This territorial gain signifies persistent offensives that threaten to destabilize the region further.
• Ethiopian forces have been observed conducting patrols and reinforcing positions near suspected drone and logistics sites, citing concerns over infiltration and sabotage.
• Sudanese forces have intensified defensive operations, wary of external support for RSF insurgents, heightening tensions along the border.

International and Diplomatic Responses

The international community remains deeply engaged, calling for independent investigations and urgent action:

• The African Union, United Nations, and neighboring countries are demanding credible, impartial inquiries to verify allegations of Ethiopian support for RSF.
• The UN has issued urgent appeals to prevent further deterioration, emphasizing the importance of transparency and accountability.
• Recent diplomatic initiatives include China’s five-point plan for Sudan, emphasizing a ceasefire and political transition, alongside UN-led efforts to de-escalate tensions.

Proposed Next Steps

Given the gravity of the emerging evidence, the following actions are increasingly critical:

• Deployment of independent fact-finding missions to border regions to verify satellite and field reports.
• Enhancement of regional intelligence-sharing and surveillance capabilities, including aerial reconnaissance and human intelligence.
• Implementation of targeted sanctions against individuals and entities supporting external involvement in the conflict.
• Diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia to cease covert activities and respect regional peace agreements.
• Promotion of peace negotiations under international auspices, prioritizing ceasefire agreements and humanitarian access.

Broader Regional and Geopolitical Implications

If these allegations are confirmed, Ethiopia’s covert involvement could have far-reaching consequences:

• Altered regional alliances: Ethiopia’s support for RSF may strain relations with the Sudanese government and neighboring nations, possibly leading to retaliatory actions or shifts in regional alignments.
• Spillover risks: The conflict could spread into neighboring countries such as Eritrea, Chad, and Central African nations, which are already grappling with insurgencies and political instability.
• Prolonged instability: Absent transparent verification and international intervention, the crisis risks deepening into a protracted conflict, with devastating civilian consequences and regional destabilization.

Recent Developments: Ongoing RSF Territorial Gains

Adding to the complexity, RSF forces continue their territorial advances:

• RSF claims to have captured another town in Darfur, signaling persistent offensives that threaten regional stability. A recent video circulating online shows fighters celebrating their control over the town, underscoring the group’s ongoing military momentum and the fragile nature of peace prospects.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Regional Stability

The emerging evidence of Ethiopia’s covert support for Sudan’s RSF via drone hubs and logistical camps marks a potentially pivotal escalation in East Africa’s conflict dynamics. As military operations intensify and civilian suffering deepens, the international community faces an urgent imperative:

• To conduct impartial investigations that establish the facts.
• To strengthen regional surveillance and intelligence-sharing.
• To apply targeted sanctions and diplomatic pressure.
• To support peaceful negotiations and humanitarian access.

The coming days will be decisive in determining whether regional actors can de-escalate tensions and prevent further chaos or whether this crisis will deepen into a broader, more intractable conflict threatening the stability of East Africa. The stakes are high, and the need for transparent accountability and coordinated international action has never been more critical.