Rising Nuclear and Strategic Risks Intensify as U.S.-Russia Arms Control Erodes and China Expands Its Arsenal

The global strategic landscape is entering a dangerously unstable phase. The erosion of longstanding arms control agreements, coupled with rapid modernization of nuclear forces by major powers, has heightened the risk of miscalculation, escalation, and regional conflicts. Recent developments underscore an urgent need for renewed diplomacy, updated verification frameworks, and comprehensive resilience strategies.

The Collapse of the U.S.-Russia Arms Control Framework and Its Consequences

A pivotal moment arrived with the expiration of the New START treaty in early 2026, marking the end of the last bilateral agreement constraining U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. The treaty’s lapse has created a verification and transparency vacuum, intensifying mistrust and strategic ambiguity. Without formal constraints, both nations are pursuing unchecked modernization programs, heightening fears of an arms race.

U.S. intelligence assessments now reveal that Russia and China are significantly accelerating their nuclear modernization efforts. The collapse of treaties like New START removes critical mechanisms for crisis management and strategic stability, increasing the likelihood that misperceptions during tense moments could escalate uncontrollably.

Key Developments:

• Russia’s ongoing modernization includes the deployment of the Sarmat ICBM, capable of carrying multiple MIRV warheads, and the development of the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, which challenges existing missile defenses.
• China’s rapid nuclear expansion involves developing new missile systems, including next-generation land-based and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Recent intelligence and test data suggest China is working on advanced nuclear warhead designs and innovative delivery mechanisms.
• China's undersea capabilities have seen a remarkable increase, with estimates indicating their nuclear submarine fleet has surpassed U.S. tonnage, approaching 79,000 tonnes. This expansion enhances China's second-strike resilience, complicating U.S. and allied deterrence efforts.

New Insights from U.S. Analysts and the IISS "The Military Balance 2026"

Recent expert assessments reinforce the gravity of the situation:

• Admiral Michael Studeman and other U.S. defense analysts highlight that China’s military modernization reflects a deliberate effort to reshape the regional balance of power, emphasizing maritime dominance and strategic deterrence. In a recent video, Admiral Studeman emphasized that China’s military power is now approaching levels that pose a direct challenge to U.S. maritime supremacy. (Source: How U.S. Intelligence Views China’s Military Power with Admiral Michael Studeman)

• The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)'s "The Military Balance 2026" underscores that China's nuclear and conventional forces are rapidly evolving, with submarine fleets, missile systems, and test programs advancing at an unprecedented pace. The report emphasizes the verification gaps and the urgent need for updated arms control regimes to prevent an escalatory spiral.

Expert Perspectives:

• The proliferation of hypersonic weapons and undersea nuclear forces signifies a paradigm shift in strategic deterrence, challenging traditional detection and interception capabilities.
• Russia’s modernization efforts are driven by a desire to maintain strategic parity amid U.S. and NATO upgrades, but the absence of treaties like New START risks accelerating an arms race.

U.S. and Allies’ Response: Modernization, Resilience, and Diplomacy

In response to mounting threats, the United States and its allies are undertaking comprehensive modernization and resilience initiatives:

• Deployment of the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, designed to penetrate sophisticated defenses and support both nuclear and conventional missions.
• Enhancement of missile defense systems and early warning networks to detect and counter emerging threats, especially from Chinese missile and submarine capabilities.
• Deployment of long-range precision strike systems such as the PrSM missile, capable of targeting threats up to 1,000 kilometers away, serving as a deterrent in the Indo-Pacific region.

Regional security measures are also evolving:

• The Philippines has established a new military base in Luzon Strait, a critical chokepoint for Chinese naval movements, to bolster regional deterrence.
• The UK is expanding its Indo-Pacific strategy, increasing cooperation with regional partners to counterbalance Chinese and Russian military advances.
• European nations are modernizing their nuclear arsenals and exploring regional deterrence arrangements to adapt to the shifting security dynamics.

Shifting Regional Security Dynamics and Strategic Implications

The strategic environment is reshaping regional balances:

• In the Indo-Pacific, China’s expanding undersea and missile capabilities threaten longstanding U.S. maritime dominance. The growth of Chinese nuclear forces and submarine fleets complicates efforts to preserve second-strike capabilities and sustain regional stability.
• The deployment of new missile systems and bases by regional allies, such as the Philippines, signals a regional arms race driven by insecurity and strategic competition.
• The United States and allies are increasingly emphasizing sea-denial tactics and power projection to deter Chinese maritime assertiveness and protect vital shipping lanes.

In Europe, diminished U.S. military presence combined with Russia’s ongoing modernization efforts prompts upgrades to nuclear and conventional arsenals and efforts to strengthen security architectures aimed at deterring renewed Russian aggression.

Policy Recommendations and the Path Forward

To address these mounting risks, experts advocate for a revitalization of arms control frameworks that incorporate modern verification technologies and confidence-building measures:

• Multilateral negotiations that include verification regimes leveraging new technologies to restore transparency.
• Strengthening crisis-management channels to prevent misunderstandings during flashpoints.
• Investing in resilience measures such as missile defenses, civil preparedness, and strategic communication to withstand potential conflicts.
• Enhancing regional cooperation among allies and partners to counter Chinese and Russian advances, thereby preventing regional arms races.

Current Status and Future Outlook

The strategic environment remains highly volatile. The breakdown of arms control agreements, particularly after the collapse of New START, combined with China’s expanding nuclear and undersea capabilities, has created a perilous climate of strategic uncertainty.

The risk of miscalculation, accidental escalation, or even limited conflict is increasing. The international community faces a narrow window to revive diplomacy, update verification regimes, and build resilience.

Implications:

• The erosion of arms control accelerates nuclear modernization and regional security competition.
• China’s rapid expansion in nuclear and undersea forces significantly alters the strategic balance, especially in the Indo-Pacific.
• The absence of effective crisis-management channels raises the stakes during potential flashpoints.
• Allies and partners must step up cooperation to counterbalance these trends and prevent a slide into greater instability.

Conclusion:

The convergence of these developments underscores a critical juncture. Without decisive action—renewed diplomacy, technological transparency, and strategic resilience—the risk of a dangerous arms race and miscalculation will continue to grow. The international community must act swiftly to restore stability and secure a safer strategic future amid mounting technological and geopolitical challenges. The stakes have never been higher, and the window for effective intervention is narrowing.