California Earthquake Risk and Bay Area Preparedness
A new assessment puts the probability of a damaging California earthquake by 2055 at 74.1%, with increased estimates for the Hayward-Rodgers Creek, San Andreas, and Calaveras faults. The finding is a long-term risk update rather than an imminent prediction, reinforcing the need for household, utility, transit, and emergency-response preparedness.
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Updated Sep 3, 2026