Asia-Pacific Geopolitics Digest

US-China Chip Materials Competition

• 🔥 US $500M AI Startup Deal: The US Department of Commerce awarded SandboxAQ $500M under the CHIPS Act to...

• US-Iran MoU ends fighting and Gulf maritime blockades, per Iran's official agency.
• Deal transforms BRICS expansion, Middle East geopolitics, and...

US is investing $500M in AI firm SandboxAQ via CHIPS Act to replace Chinese rare-earth magnets and other materials critical for advanced chips.
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Xi agreed to expand cooperation in trade, agriculture, and technology with North Korea, potentially including the new Yalu River bridge. This signals evolving bilateral ties centered on practical economic links rather than denuclearization alone.

Taiwan and ASEAN are preparing for conflict risks in distinct but connected ways.

• Taiwan's civil defence expands with drone training programs,...

US sanctions on Cuba and Venezuela are portrayed as economic warfare, with UN warnings highlighting severe human costs for affected populations.

China is leveraging its dominance in rare earths and expanding export controls across critical supply chains to blunt US leverage.

• Rare earth...

• China's pressure on Global South nations to exclude Taiwan from events has become the "new normal," as seen in Kenya detentions.
• Trump's proposed...

As US-China rivalry intensifies, South Korea's selective middle power diplomacy reflects the understandable constraints of alliance dependence and great power competition.

China's vast fishing fleet functions as an instrument of state power, extending influence from the Philippines across the South China Sea to West...

China's heavily managed economy may give it an edge in a prolonged US-China trade war, allowing the government to squash political resistance and maintain resilience.

Investors should expect more friction between Washington and Beijing over technology and Taiwan in the years ahead, according to Jake Sullivan. This signals sustained risks for supply chains and markets amid US-China competition.

Great power envy could push the EU toward a “reverse Deng” approach: extracting technology from foreign firms, loosening antitrust rules, and matching China's industrial policy.

US-China AI Supply Chain Ties

• 🔥 US AI Dependence on China: US faces reported $345 shortfall and is described as begging Beijing to sustain its...

• Taiwan evaluates Bitcoin reserves as gold becomes unusable under blockade scenarios.
• US policy prioritizes stability in the Strait via adaptive...

The "green trap" narrative portrays Western tools like the Carbon Border Tax (CBAM) as new economic weapons designed to constrain Global South...

The Thucydides Trap serves as a stark warning that great-power rivalries often turn dangerous, pushing Beijing toward homegrown solutions rather than...

China's AI-related exports are proving indispensable to global growth as the country benefits directly from surging US tech spending.

• US dependence...

The Iran-US ceasefire, with combat ending June 14 and formal signing set for June 19, lifts Hormuz Strait restrictions and eases immediate energy...

US-Iran Deal Developments

• 🔥 Interim Agreement Reopens Hormuz: US and Iran reach deal to reopen Hormuz Strait, with China playing a diplomatic...