Bond Market Sell-Off and Higher-for-Longer
Key Questions
What are the latest initial jobless claims figures?
Initial jobless claims dropped to 187k, the lowest since 1969.
What does the drop in jobless claims indicate about the labor market?
This signals an extremely tight labor market and adds to the overheating narrative.
How might this affect expectations for Fed rate hikes?
It strengthens the case for a rate hike despite soft CPI/PPI data.
The 30-year Treasury yield remains near 5.32% and the 10-year near 4.65%, with jumbo mortgage rates around 7.14%. Quantitative tightening, Treasury supply, fiscal concerns, duration premia, refinancing risks, and sustained corporate debt issuance continue to support elevated long-term yields despite limited evidence of broad credit stress.
Sources (4)
Updated Sep 7, 2026