Follow the Fed

The Fed's September 25bp hike to 3.75-4% came with Chair Warsh's blunt warning that inflation remains "too high" after 3.4% gains through August.

-...

Three currencies confront distinct pressures after September rate hikes by the Fed, ECB, and BOJ:

• Dollar draws support from 3.7% Q3 growth and...

BIS General Manager highlights central banks' proven crisis tools alongside growing constraints.

• Past successes: Liquidity facilities, asset...

The September rate hike drew sharp political fire, yet the record points to a policy misstep driven by data timing rather than election...

September payrolls came in weak, following the FOMC's unanimous hike to 3.75-4.00% that removed all 2027 rate cuts from the dot plot.

Minutes due...

FOMC minutes from the September hike will reveal how unified the committee remains on further tightening, directly challenging Goldman Sachs' call for...

Falling oil prices below $100 and 10-year Treasury yields settling between 4.75-5.25% are signaling a slowdown in economic growth, even as investors...

Kevin Hassett claimed dissatisfaction with the economy would appear in the data, even as September jobs grew by just 29,000—60,000 below expectations....

• Market repricing: Odds of a Fed rate hike this month fell to 22% from 64% a week earlier
• Labor report details: September payrolls rose just 29k...

Modern economies rely on borrowing to fund business investments, home purchases, and emergency government spending.

• High debt loads plus recent rate...

Fed Governor Waller highlighted AI's dual impact on FRED, the Fed's economic data platform.

• Efficiency boost: AI tools search, summarize, and...

The Fed's October 27-28 meeting, held days before the midterm election, risks entangling rate decisions with partisan politics amid inflation fears.

Seasoned traders interpret economic indicators through real-world examples to adjust expectations for Fed policy, Treasury yields, and market pricing.

Data on the U.S. federal funds rate now covers July 1954 through September 2026, delivering a long-run perspective on monetary-policy restriction levels.

This week's releases will offer fresh clues on how businesses and households are handling high inflation and what that means for future Fed policy.

-...

A solid labor market has allowed the Fed to concentrate on inflation rather than easing aggressively. Warsh notes the economy remains strong enough for the central bank to focus on price stability amid ongoing rate debates.

ISM manufacturing employment rose to 52.7 in September, extending its expansion streak to three consecutive months ahead of the jobs report. This improvement suggests official employment data could prove more resilient than market expectations.

Fed Fund futures serve as a direct market indicator of expectations for the Fed's actions at future FOMC meetings.

Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman sees early signs of improved market liquidity from the eSLR ratio overhaul, the backstop capital rule that could ease bank balance sheet constraints and support smoother policy transmission.

Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and another Fed official suggested policymakers should take more time before deciding on additional interest-rate...