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Traders approach a pivotal day as manufacturing and services PMI data rank among the crucial economic releases expected to sway market dynamics.

Kevin Warsh urged the FOMC in July to cut scheduled meetings from eight to six annually, arguing this would give staff more time for strategic monetary policy issues and let more data accumulate between sessions.

Treasury Secretary Bessent's bond market interventions are forcing Chairman Warsh to clarify the Fed's role, especially as Warsh has previously...

The July PCE report, out next week, marks the final reading under the current methodology as the BEA revises calculations for AI-driven software and...

Hawkish voices urge action while bond markets price in a prolonged hold.

• Hawkish stance: Sri-Kumar argues Warsh must signal a September rate hike...

Warsh's debut FOMC delivered a unanimous rate hold at 3.50-3.75% while the updated dot plot shifted to expect a 3.8% endpoint for 2026, signaling one...

• Many officials flagged risks of persistent inflation affecting expectations and wage-setting beyond the three dissenters.
• Dissenters called for an...

July FOMC minutes show deep divisions, with many participants ready to hike if inflation fails to slow sustainably amid risks from tariffs, energy...

The US Dollar Index's slide to a three-month low reflects softer economic data that has prompted traders to price in earlier or more aggressive Fed...

Fed minutes from the July meeting reveal broad support for a rate hike if inflation fails to ease further.

• Many participants assessed tightening...

Three voting members dissented at the July FOMC, favoring a 25bp rate increase while nine others held the fed funds range at 3.5-3.75%.

• Hammack,...

• Hawkish tilt: Many officials favored a July rate hike if inflation failed to ease, with concerns over supply shocks and AI investment sustaining...

Bond traders have flipped from betting on deep rate cuts into 2027 to hedging for hikes toward 4% by August 2027, after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's May arrival and hotter inflation data. The SOFR options market now signals higher for longer is back.

Central banks have reduced their share of foreign-owned US debt from 50.2% in early 2023 to 40.6% by June, shedding $114bn over twelve...

The July FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for a 25bp hike—the first such split since 2016....

Bank of America's survey shows 69% of fund managers expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to strike a neutral tone at Jackson Hole, with 31% bracing for a...

Markets have sharply scaled back September hike odds to 35% from 65% in July, driven by weak jobs data and cooling inflation.

• Oil prices above $91...

• Four-week average rises to 9,500 jobs weekly for period ending August 1, after seven weeks of decline
• Earlier trend showed steady drop from 30,750...

US producer prices held flat in July as goods prices dropped 0.7% while services costs rose 0.2%, reinforcing expectations the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its September 15-16 meeting.

• Warsh testified the Fed has "only a target, and it's 2%," rejecting any soft inflation goal
• This hardline stance ends the "Fed put," stripping...