Follow the Fed

• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.5%-3.75% in his first meeting, with markets now pricing possible hikes as inflation risks persist.
• June...

Fed expectations create sharp gold volatility as hike and cut scenarios pull in opposite directions.

• Rate hike expectations weigh on gold by...

With oil prices dropping sharply after the Iran ceasefire, inflation is easing and the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged...

Fed and ECB Minutes in Focus

• 🔥 Minutes Releases: Global markets will monitor the Fed June meeting minutes on Thursday and ECB minutes for...

• Fed minutes on Thursday will detail Chair Walsh's first meeting, with markets pricing a December 25bp hike and possible October move.
• ECB minutes...

A handy 2026 reference for the releases markets watch closest.

• CPI prints monthly at 8:30 AM ET, starting Tuesday January 13 for December 2025...

Central bankers at this week's ECB Sintra conference signaled a clear shift away from post-ZLB tools.

• Forward guidance rejected: Lagarde, Bailey,...

• Fed under Warsh emphasizes inflation fight as energy prices push CPI near 4%
• Policymakers now signal tightening bias, with markets pricing a hike...

Renewed Treasury bill net issuance of $39 billion this week will rebuild the TGA toward $1 trillion, draining reserves from $3.1 trillion toward the...

June's NFP miss of just 57,000 jobs slashed September rate-hike odds to 52% from 64%, sending the dollar index down 0.58% for its biggest weekly drop since April while gold surged above $4,160 and global equities posted their best week in months.

Soft US jobs and inflation prints have triggered a swift repricing of Fed expectations.

• Hike probability plunged below 30% for the next FOMC and...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested inflation may decline further during an interview addressing high gas prices and related economic pressures.

Weak June jobs data triggered gold's 1.28% surge to $4,175.37, cutting September rate-hike odds to 54% from 66% and sending the dollar toward its...

FOMC Minutes and Upcoming Data

• 🔥 FOMC Minutes Release: FOMC minutes from the June 16-17 meeting are scheduled for release July 8 at 2pm ET.
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Weaker-than-expected June jobs (57k added) cut near-term rate hike odds, reflected in prediction markets showing 90% chance the Fed holds steady in...

Monday's services PMI releases will directly influence expectations for Fed rate path.

• Stronger-than-expected Services PMI or ISM Non-Manufacturing...

A single weak jobs print reset Fed expectations and sparked cross-asset moves.

• Labor data shock: June payrolls rose just 57,000 versus 110-115k...

Kevin Warsh reinforced the Fed's commitment to price stability at the ECB forum, noting inflation remains too high and decisions will hinge on...

• ISM Services Index Monday at 10 AM will gauge service sector strength.
• May Trade Deficit Tuesday expected at $78.8 billion, likely swaying growth...

30-year fixed rates fell six basis points to 6.43% amid softer jobs data and easing oil prices. Experts say the next Fed meeting could sway rates...