Oil surge to $100 drives rate hike odds to multi-year highs
Key Questions
What triggered the surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel?
Crude oil broke above $100/bbl amid Middle East conflict, which triggered a massive repricing of Fed rate hike expectations.
How have Fed rate hike odds changed recently?
July odds surged to 38% on CME, September to 82%, challenging the economist consensus of no hikes.
Why is the $91 oil price threshold considered significant?
The $91 threshold is seen as a 'big trouble' signal for inflation.
Crude oil broke above $100/bbl amid Middle East conflict, triggering a massive repricing of Fed rate hike expectations. July odds surged to 38% (CME), September to 82%, challenging the economist consensus of no hikes. The $91 threshold is seen as a 'big trouble' signal for inflation.
Sources (2)
Updated Jul 24, 2026