Softening Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets: Retail Sales Miss, Jobs Weaken

July retail sales fell 0.6% vs +0.1% expected, consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0, and the July jobs report showed weakness. September rate hike odds dropped to 31%, and traders cut rate hike bets. The soft-landing narrative is gaining traction, but wage growth and inflation expectations remain sticky. July CPI at 3.4% and core at 2.5% with supercore easing adds to the data-dependent debate.