****FOMC Apr first cut 25bp to 4.00-4.25%: markets hope/caution pivot** [developing]
Key Questions
What was the Federal Reserve's decision at the April FOMC meeting?
The Fed implemented its first rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds target range to 4.00-4.25%. This occurred despite prior high odds of holding rates.
How did markets react to the Fed's first rate cut?
Markets showed a mixed reaction with hope for a continued easing path but caution regarding the Fed's guidance and dot plot on future cuts. This challenged prior no-cut narratives.
What were the expectations leading into the April FOMC?
Prior odds stood at 99.5% for holding rates steady amid hawkish data, sticky inflation, and resilient economy. The cut surprised markets and shifted expectations.
Fed makes first rate cut despite prior 99.5% hold odds hawkish data sticky inf resilient econ; markets react mixed hope for easing path caution on guidance/dot plot future pace; challenges no-cuts narrative GS/DB hawk priors.
Sources (2)
Updated Apr 19, 2026