10Y 4.32-4.6%/BEI4.6%/mort6.47-6.62% highs listings stale; DXY slip pre-CPI; fiscal/priv credit/FCB $400B-$3.6T BOJ dump liq/QT + gold crash CB sells mkts selloff + liq cycle risks
Key Questions
What are the recent levels for 10-year Treasury yields?
10Y yields have ranged from 4.32% to 4.6%, with BEI at 4.6%. This reflects hawkish pressure and market selloff.
How high have mortgage rates gone?
Mortgage rates hit 6.47%-6.62% highs, described as an 'unofficial hike.' Listings are stale amid housing stability.
Why has the DXY slipped recently?
DXY slipped ahead of the CPI report. Markets brace for volatility amid fiscal, private credit, and FCB dynamics.
What is the status of Fed balance sheet and QT?
Fed balance sheet hit a relative low in Dec 2025, then expanded 2.15%; QT is slowing with repo tightness. This poses liquidity cycle risks.
What central bank actions are impacting markets?
BOJ is dumping liquidity; central banks selling Treasuries ($400B-$3.6T) and gold. This fuels selloffs and VIX at 25.
How has the S&P performed amid these pressures?
S&P dropped 5.3% with credit card delinquencies at 20-year highs. Bond market plunged on jobs surge and CB exits.
What risks are highlighted for CPI and liquidity?
CPI volatility risks persist pre-report; liquidity cycle risks from QT, BOJ dump, and CB sells. Gold crash adds pressure.
What does the ICE Mortgage Monitor say about housing?
Annual home price growth was 0.4% in March. Early spring housing remains stable despite high mortgage rates.
Unofficial hike mort>6.4%/S&P-5.3%/CC20%; 10Y4.35-4.6%/VIX25; Fed BS low Dec2025/expanded2.15% QT slowing/repo tight; DXY slip pre-CPI; BOJ dumps; housing stable; hawk pressure bonds; CPI vol risks.