Core/upstream inf reaccel/cred test/tariffs/supply chain: PCE3.06/SEP2.7+'26/PPI+0.7%/CPI fc3.02%+gas+1% spike sticky transient vs unanchor; SF Fed stock +0.7pp PCE; policymaker PCE3% sticky
Key Questions
What do the latest NY Fed SCE inflation expectations show?
The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations shows 1-year inflation at 3.4%, with gas price growth expectations spiking to 9.4%. This indicates rising short-term inflation concerns tied to energy.
What is the preview for Friday's CPI report?
CPI is expected to show core at 0.3% monthly (3.1% annual) and headline at 0.9% monthly (3.1-3.5% annual). Energy prices, especially gas, are driving the headline increase.
What are the recent PCE and SEP inflation forecasts?
PCE inflation is at 3.06%, with SEP projecting 2.7% or higher for 2026. PPI rose 0.7%, signaling upstream reacceleration.
How are Fed officials like Goolsbee and Hammack describing inflation risks?
Chicago Fed's Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed's Hammack describe inflation as 'flashing orange' or worse. They highlight persistent pressures warranting caution.
What is Warren Buffett's view on the Fed's inflation target?
Buffett advocates targeting zero inflation, arguing the 2% target erodes savings. Economists note risks in such a policy shift.
What concerns are small businesses reporting?
53% of small businesses cite inflation and Iran-related issues as top concerns, leading to reduced spending and hiring. This reflects broader economic unease.
Is Powell viewing current inflation shocks as transient?
Powell describes supply shocks like energy spikes as transient, contrasting with risks of sticky inflation or unanchoring. He cautions against overreacting with hikes.
What factors contribute to sticky core inflation expectations?
Sticky core inflation above 2% is noted by JPMorgan, with oil caution and grocery CPI risks. Transient vs. persistent debate centers on energy and supply chains.
CPI Fri preview core0.3% ann3.1%/headline0.9% ann3.3%; Cleveland 3.25-3.28Apr; SF paper stock fees explain stubborn PCE~2% sans; policymaker core PCE3% tariffs/energy; NY SCE1yr3.4%; sticky core>2% JPM/oil; Goolsbee orange.