FOMC June 16-17 expected hike amid hot data and Waller reversal

June FOMC likely 0.25% hike to 3.75-4.00%; CME odds ~60%. Cleveland Fed nowcast shows Q2 annualized 6.85%, reinforcing hike risk. BofA no cuts until 2027. Waller's Frankfurt speech closes door on cuts. Strategists disagree on rate-cut scenario, adding uncertainty. July hike odds 43-64%. Gold under pressure from rising hike odds. Futures market may be overreacting—low volume in distant contracts could unwind if data softens. Warsh's AI-driven productivity thesis adds a fresh angle to the rate debate. Powell may dissent as a governor, highlighting internal split. New data: market now pricing 70% chance of a rate hike in 2026; inflation expectations jumping; consumer sentiment at all-time low.