Market repricing: hawks + energy shocks post-FOMC/SEP/NFP/Powell/JPM zero+hike '27/Wells Fargo hold '27/Hammack hikes>2%/Siegel no cuts/brokerages 2 cuts pivot hike odds; Goolsbee hawkish oil/stagfl; leadership crisis DOJ probe block/Warsh limbo
Key Questions
What is the preview for March CPI MoM?
The preview indicates 0.9% MoM, the worst since 2022, driven by energy prices rising 10.6%. This has contributed to market repricing amid hawkish Fed signals.
What did Chicago Fed President Goolsbee say about oil and inflation?
Goolsbee described oil-driven inflation as flashing 'orange-red' stagflation with no recession expected, contrasting December 2025 cut expectations. He views policymaker PCE at 3% as sticky.
What is the status of the DOJ probe into Fed Chair Powell?
A federal judge has blocked the Justice Department’s criminal investigation into Powell for a second time. This contributes to a Fed leadership crisis.
What are the odds of the Fed holding rates in April?
FedWatch shows a 99.5% probability of the Fed holding rates in April. Markets anticipate no immediate cuts amid hawkish views.
What is Cleveland Fed President Hammack's view on rate hikes?
Hammack indicated openness to rate hikes greater than 2% if inflation persists. This aligns with other hawkish policymaker comments.
What is JPMorgan's forecast for Fed rate cuts?
JPMorgan expects zero rate cuts in 2026 and a potential hike in 2027. This reflects a stark message pushing back cut expectations.
What does Wells Fargo predict for Fed rates through 2027?
Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% through 2027. This 'higher for longer' view matches brokerages pivoting to fewer cuts.
What is the situation with Fed leadership and Warsh's confirmation?
Warsh's confirmation is in limbo amid a leadership crisis. NY Fed's Williams stated FOMC leadership is not in question despite delays.
CPI Mar preview 0.9% MoM worst since '22 energy10.6%; Goolsbee oil inf orange-red stagfl no rec vs Dec'25 cut; policymaker PCE3% sticky; judge blocks DOJ Powell probe Warsh conf limbo inf3%; Fed hold Apr/FedWatch99.5% Hammack hikes>2% JPM zero'26 +hike'27.