非农强劲失业降韧性CPI来袭Fed鹰派债息下滑VIX回落美股反弹大型流入分化
Key Questions
What were the key nonfarm payroll figures?
March nonfarm payrolls added 178K jobs with unemployment at 4.3%, showing labor market resilience. This delays Fed rate cuts. Upcoming CPI and core PCE at 0.4% reinforce hawkish stance.
How did US Treasury yields move?
10Y yield fell to 4.3188% (-1.19bp) and 5Y to 3.931% (-5.59bp), with the curve steepening +50bp. Bond markets show rare divergence amid inflation seen as transitory. Markets trust Fed control.
What drove the US stock rebound?
S&P and Nasdaq rebounded with $70B inflows into large caps, value stocks, and banks like BAC +4.42%. VIX fell as equities gained despite geo-risks. AI stocks diverged.
Why is the Fed expected to remain hawkish?
Strong jobs data and sticky core PCE at 0.4% signal delayed cuts. Inflation expectations have 2Y at 3.3% > 10Y. FOMC minutes and CPI loom large.
How are global bonds reacting?
Global debt at $100T+ and US fiscal at $36T face war and oil stress tests. Yields slid post-hawkish data. Markets shift risk-on amid changing dynamics.
What inflows occurred in US equities?
US equity funds saw second weekly inflow, led by large caps. Investors under-allocated outside Mag 7. Banks and value led gains.
What key events to watch next?
Monitor PCE data, Treasury auctions, TGA, COT overbought signals, and OPEX. FOMC minutes from March 17-18 meeting release soon. Labor resilience noted.
How did Bank of America stock perform?
BAC rose 4.42% amid banking sector strength and equity rebound. Value rotation from AI divergence supported gains. Broader market uptick aided.
非农3月178K失业4.3%韧性Fed降息延迟CPI核心PCE0.4%鹰派债10Y4.3188%5Y3.931%下滑曲线陡+50bp美债分化通胀预期2Y3.3%>10Y全球债100T+财政36T债战S&P纳反弹大型70亿流入价值银行BAC+4.42%AI分化关注PCE拍卖TGA COT超买OPEX。