油價繼續下跌 美伊協議接近簽署 鋁價暴跌至戰前水平 AI銅需求爆發但短期透支
Key Questions
Why is oil continuing to decline?
Brent crude has broken below $80 amid expectations of a US-Iran agreement and rising supply. EIA forecasts confirm a downward path with Brent projected at $74 in Q3 2026 and $65 in 2027.
What happened to aluminum and natural gas prices?
Aluminum prices have collapsed to pre-war levels while natural gas surged 6%. Tight inventories and low SPR levels may limit further oil downside, but aluminum faces structural oversupply.
How strong is AI-driven copper demand expected to be?
AI investment is projected to create a structural copper supply gap of up to 10 million tons. Long-term forecasts see prices in the $11k-$15k/ton range by 2026, though short-term doubling raises concerns of expectation overhang.
What is Shell's LNG demand outlook?
Shell forecasts global LNG demand rising 65% by 2050 from 2025 levels. Middle East conflict adds uncertainty to supply infrastructure and trade flows.
How are institutions adjusting commodity allocations?
Guotai Junan Futures recommends cutting resource exposure from 40% to 30%. Donghai Research notes that the commodity inventory cycle is now weighing on growth, favoring caution.
原油繼續下跌，布倫特跌破80美元，美伊協議接近簽署。鋁價暴跌至戰前水平，天然氣飆升6%。庫存緊、SPR低、颶風季或限制跌幅。定價邏輯已重塑，供給恢復型路徑利好美股、黃金。AI投資引爆銅需求，供給結構性短缺缺口可能達千萬噸，最新銅價展望預測2026年區間$11k-$15k/噸，但短期銅價已翻倍需警惕預期透支。EIA預測石油產出反彈，布倫特Q3 2026 $74，2027 $65，確認油價下行。Shell預測全球LNG需求2050年增長65%，中東衝突影響供應前景。國泰君安期貨建議資源配置從40%降至30%。東海研究指出商品庫存周期開始拖累增長。