Fed Rate Tracker

June inflation data arrives amid shifting Fed expectations, with markets pricing in rising hike probabilities due to stubborn price pressures.

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Investors are closely watching Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony this week for any signals on inflation and rates after the Fed reduced...

The Hyundai Research Institute projects the Fed will raise rates at least once this year, with the optimal benchmark rate climbing to 4.17% by Q1...

Fed Governor Statements

• 🔥 Waller Challenges Trump: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, appointed by Trump, is resisting the...

• Markets price a 21.6% hike chance at the July FOMC versus 78% hold, fueled by hawkish June minutes and upward SEP revisions to 3.8% terminal rate.
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Weak June payrolls of just 57,000 jobs triggered a Dow record above 52,700 as July hike odds plunged below 20%.

• Market view: Data eased rate-hike...

• Reduced forward guidance has left markets without a clear policy compass, with Warsh narrowing public communications since taking office.
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Kevin Warsh's first congressional appearances this week represent a key test of Fed independence, as lawmakers press him on rates amid climbing...

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's recent statement has all but dashed President Trump's demands to slash rates to 1% or lower from the current 3.50%-3.75% range, highlighting the Fed's resistance to political pressure on monetary policy.

Four Harvard professors are leading key Fed task forces reviewing monetary policy tools, communications, balance sheets, data, and inflation frameworks, delivering academic rigor to adapt the central bank's approach amid economic shifts.

• Prediction markets price a 38.5% chance of a 25 bp September hike and 56.5% for no change, treating the meeting as a hold-or-hike decision.
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Next week brings a surge of Fed communications before the blackout period, led by Waller on Monday and Kashkari testifying Tuesday-Wednesday. Markets will watch closely for any signals on a possible July rate hike after June CPI data.

The Economist's 2006 cover showed Greenspan handing Bernanke a dynamite stick amid the housing bubble. Warsh now inherits three: unsustainable $2T...

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is resisting President Trump's calls for immediate rate cuts, insisting on proceeding based on his own...

No reason for the Fed to hike in 2026, argues Robin Brooks: inflation generalization remains low at 60% with no broad-based pressures, long-term...

Monetary Policy Report Release

• 🔥 Inflation Forecast Revision: The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report revises the Fed's 2026 inflation forecast...

Fed Chair Warsh plans to skip forward guidance in next week's congressional testimony, reaffirming only the Fed's 2% inflation goal without rate...

The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report identifies tariffs, Middle East-driven energy costs, and AI buildout as key factors pushing inflation higher this...

Rate watchers gain a clear calendar of upcoming Fed communications.

• Bowman addresses modernizing financial regulation July 13; Waller discusses the...

RBC Wealth Management strategist Thomas Garretson says the Fed will either reverse all 75bp of 2025 insurance cuts or deliver no rate hikes at all in...