Fed Rate Tracker

• Jefferson's caution: If inflation fails to cool, policy stance "may need to change" while staying data-dependent.
• Logan's explicit push: First...

Tame June CPI data gives the Fed breathing room, with futures pricing a 90% chance of no rate hike on July 29.

• CPI moderation: Headline and core...

Kevin Warsh's inaugural press conference signals a clear break from the Phillips Curve "cruel choice" doctrine. He insists strong growth, low prices, and high employment can be achieved together, pointing to a new policy framework.

Positive June data on inflation and retail sales created breathing room for the Fed to stay on hold, at least temporarily.

Yet Dallas Fed President...

The San Francisco Fed views the labor market as broadly balanced with job openings at 7.6 million only slightly above seekers, while headline PCE...

Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's 2% inflation target during July 14-15 hearings, stating "Inflation is a choice" and vowing it would not persist on his...

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for "modestly" higher rates to restore 2% inflation, warning one month of relief is insufficient and "better...

Baseline outlook keeps the Fed on hold through 2026 as price pressures ease gradually.

• Core CPI stays locked in the 2.6-2.9% range even amid energy...

• Warsh urges markets to ignore Fed talk and focus on data alone.
• Colleagues Cook and Williams detail inflation risks and policy reactions.
• June...

Senator Mike Rounds praised Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for striking the right tone on inflation control and central bank independence during his first...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to limit public disclosure of internal deliberations while increasing external scrutiny through five new task forces reviewing monetary policy.

Fed voices reveal a clear divide after June's CPI drop to 3.5%.

• Williams calls inflation peaked and backs holding the 3.5-3.75% rate steady
• Cook...

• Official report shows slight district expansion, with manufacturing shipments up but profit margins squeezed by volatile energy costs.
• News...

No significant updates today.

• Fed communication: Waller called policy "at a crossroads," warning a hot core CPI reading could force near-term tightening to avoid repeating 2021...

• Fed Governor Waller stated that a hot core inflation reading this week could force the FOMC to tighten policy soon, rejecting passive approaches to...

Governor Waller's speech frames monetary policy at a crossroads, citing core PCE rising from 3% to 3.4% and warning that persistent inflation could...

Warsh's Fed is redefining its communication by reducing forward guidance and avoiding firm commitments to future rate paths, questioning whether more...

US inflation is projected to fall to ~3% in June 2026 for the first time in six years, easing tariff and energy pressures. Core readings stay above the Fed's 2% target, yet this headline decline could shift market odds toward rate cuts in 2026.

CME FedWatch now puts a 46.5% chance on a 25bp July 29 hike, up sharply from 34% Sunday, as oil prices jumped past $75 on Trump's renewed Iran blockade and Strait of Hormuz toll.