Fed Rate Tracker

Major outlets converged on the same July PCE takeaway despite different framing.

• Core in line: 3.3% YoY and 0.2% MoM met expectations across...

July's sticky PCE inflation is widening the divide inside the Fed, with doves favoring steady rates while hawks see a need to hike soon.

• Core PCE...

• Treasury doubled long-term debt buybacks to $4B starting Sept 9 to ease yields after 30-year note hit 19-year high
• July PCE rose 3.7%, keeping...

Four regional Federal Reserve banks recommended raising the discount rate ahead of the July FOMC meeting, signaling hawkish pressure from regional...

• Warsh shortened post-meeting statements from 341 to 130 words and removed all forward guidance, forcing markets to rely on data instead of Fed...

Boston Fed's Collins said rate hikes remain possible if inflation does not slow, underscoring the Fed's data-driven stance on future policy moves.

• December odds capture the full probability of at least one hike by year-end, folding in any earlier meetings rather than standing as a separate...

The July PCE report, due today, is the key test for whether inflation is cooling enough to rule out resumed Fed rate hikes.

• Expected prints:...

Markets turn cautious ahead of multiple high-impact events this week.

• Nvidia earnings Wednesday will test AI valuations and growth outlook
• Fed...

Fed faces growing internal hawkish pressure from regional banks and officials.

• Regional pushback: Four Fed banks requested higher emergency loan...

Can Kevin Warsh restore clarity or deepen confusion in his first major speech?

Critics argue his early tenure has already disoriented markets and...

• Four regional boards (Cleveland, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas) voted to hike primary credit rate to 4% in July.
• FOMC split 9-3 on funds rate...

Senator Gallego and six Democrats are urging Chair Warsh to preserve the FOMC's eight-meeting schedule, calling any reduction the largest cutback in modern Fed history. They warn it would make policy less responsive to real-time economic conditions.

Kevin Warsh has eliminated forward guidance, shortened statements, and cut scheduled speeches, forcing markets to read data alone.

• Internal splits...

Treasury will at least double long-dated buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation starting September, responding to the 30-year yield...

Core PCE at 3.2% has eliminated September rate-cut odds below 31%, anchoring the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75% through year-end as services inflation...

The Fed lacks insight into who is financing the $3 trillion AI boom, creating a blind spot that complicates distinguishing near-term resource...

Fewer meetings could reduce Fed communication, with less forward guidance and fewer press conferences.

• Market expectations may shift as longer gaps...

Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chair is drawing intense market focus on his views about market-driven rate hikes replacing traditional...

Long-term Treasury yields are signaling deeper concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability, even as recent data shows cooling prices. The...