Fed Rate Tracker

• Fed raised rates 0.25% in September to 3.75-4.00% range as core inflation holds near 3.4%, driving 10-year yields above 5.2%.
• Corporate earnings...

Vice Chair Bowman detailed a supervision overhaul focused on accountability and material risks, separate from monetary policy decisions.

Key elements...

Fed officials caution against consecutive rate hikes as consumer inflation expectations hit 3.9% for the next year—the highest since May 2023.

Renewed inflation at 3.4% year-over-year, fueled by a 30% jump in oil prices, drove the Federal Reserve to raise rates 0.25% in September—its first...

After September's initial rate increase, fixed-income markets now see additional hikes as more likely than not, prompting investors to reassess exposure in rate-sensitive assets and strengthen risk management.

Can the concentrated AI investment surge strengthen the broader U.S. economy, or does restrictive policy keep growth stuck in a shallow post-GFC...

• Dollar rally resumes on rising rate-hike odds, with 82% probability priced for December.
• Gold gains 1.5% to $4,196/oz as falling oil prices boost...

• Waller's stance: Rates likely to rise if inflation stays elevated.
• Market view: Futures price ~92% probability of hold at next FOMC.
• Key gap: Officials flag tightening risks while traders expect stability.

Traders broadly expect the Fed to hold its policy rate in the 3.75%-4.00% range at the October meeting after the September 15-16 hike, even as Musalem argues tighter monetary policy is still needed.

Markets now price one to two more Fed rate hikes by year-end 2026 after the September 25bp increase to 3.75-4.00%, with further tightening possible...

Mark these eight annual meetings to track rate decisions and projections.

• 2026 projection meetings: March 18, June 17, September 16, December 9
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Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled further rate hikes are likely if data holds, citing persistent core PCE inflation at 3% and a stable labor...

Gold firmed as a softer dollar and easing Treasury yields lifted bullion, even as persistent inflation concerns and further Fed tightening loom. St....

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more rate hikes will likely be needed over the next six to nine months to return inflation to 2% and contain broadening pressures, while leaving open whether action comes at the October meeting.

New York Fed researchers found that tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to inflation across 67 consumer-goods categories by February 2026.

Both articles highlight the September 2026 FOMC minutes showing most participants judged another rate increase likely appropriate before year-end.
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Rick Rieder, BlackRock's global fixed income CIO, calls the front end of the yield curve still very attractive and positions for a hawkish Federal Reserve.

Alberto Musalem says the Fed will need additional rate hikes to bring inflation back to the 2% target in a timely manner, while stressing he enters the late October meeting with an open mind and no prejudgment.

Waller examines the signaling value of the Summary of Economic Projections to frame the FOMC's September 25 basis point rate increase to 3.75-4 percent after nine months on hold, while keeping flexibility on the timing of any future moves.

Governor Waller stressed that his September rate increase reflected a preponderance of evidence accumulated over months—not a single data...