Fed Rate Tracker

NY Fed emphasizes economic resilience amid challenges like cooling labor market and elevated inflation.

Key 2026 projections:

• GDP growth: 2.25%
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• FOMC holds rates at 4.25%-4.5% in 9-2 vote – unchanged since Dec 2024, Powell's first double dissent.
• Markets price 89.8% chance of July 25bp cut per mid-March estimates.
• Internal rifts highlight hawkish resistance to easing.

• Core PCE hits 3%: Fed's preferred gauge shows no progress in two years, still 1% above target.
• Plosser's hawkish view: Would urge getting...

The Fed slashed rates by 0.25 points to 3.5-3.75%, framing it as the final cut with Powell's remarks—signaling a likely pause in easing.

• Energy shocks from Iran war drove March CPI to 3.3% (highest in 2 years), core at 2.6% with services reaccel; oil hit $115/barrel.
• Tariffs flagged...

Potential Powell-to-Warsh transition in May heightens policy pivot risks.

• Hawkish Warsh prioritizes inflation control over easy easing.
• Rate cuts...

Official Fed Speeches

• 🔥 Powell at Harvard: Fed Chair Jerome Powell states the Fed must remain vigilant in the face of persistent inflation...

Expert critique intensifies on Fed's rate stance amid slowdown signals:

• Q4 GDP at just 0.5%, consumer spending slowing to 0.6% early 2026
• 14...

• Dense Fed statements ahead: Goolsbee (Wed panel), Barr (Wed remarks/chat), Harker/Barkin/Collins (Wed chat), Bowman (Thu speech), Williams (Thu...

• Core PCE far exceeded March 2026 SEP projections, compelling Powell to address trends and update outlooks.
• Markets price no June rate cut; model...

• Powell's stance: Remain vigilant on persistent inflation while supporting growth.
• Market reaction: Treasuries fell, yields up 5 bps, as March...

High-level alert: On April 8, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell summoned CEOs of every systemically important bank to an...

Fed policymakers' comments provide clues on FOMC's economic assessment and policy outlook, with key factors including growth and inflation.

• Panic pricing: Markets now imply 45% odds of 2026 Fed rate hike, up from 12% amid Middle East oil tensions.
• Goldman baseline: Still forecasts two...

• US inflation hits 3.3% from energy price surge
• Core inflation stays sticky, paired with PCE data
• Expert: Recent energy surge assumes inflation remains sticky, eyeing Fed rate cut hesitation

• Headline CPI jumps 0.9% MoM (biggest since 2022) and 3.3% YoY, driven by gas prices up 21%—accounting for ~75% of rise—post-US Iran attack
• Core...

• BofA stays dovish: Forecasts two 2026 cuts, expecting Fed to overlook supply-driven inflation, weak wages, political pressure; risks tilt to none.
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March FOMC Minutes Highlights

• 🔥 Inflation Progress Concerns: Vast majority of Fed officials worry progress on inflation could stall, per March...

• Post-CPI surge: Traders maintain bets on Fed rate holds through end-2026 after March consumer prices rose as expected.
• Cut odds low: Only...

Polymarket tracks trading odds and predictions for the April FOMC federal funds rate decision, where the committee sets the target range and the market resolves to the basis point change.