Fed Rate Tracker

No significant updates today.

No significant updates today.

Citadel Securities warns the Fed must shift toward hiking rates because inflation—not the labor market—now poses the greater risk, driven by oil...

Kevin Warsh took the oath of office as Federal Reserve Chairman and Board member on May 22, 2026, after Senate confirmation earlier that month. The...

Kevin Warsh's May 13 Senate confirmation and May 22 White House swearing-in have sparked two competing narratives.

• Policy overhaul expectations:...

Kashkari's April dissent signals widening rifts under incoming leadership.

• Kashkari's objection: Voted against FOMC wording implying future cuts,...

Governor Waller's May 22 speech flipped policy risks, arguing rates are just as likely to rise as fall due to inflation concerns.

• BNY dropped its...

Former Fed Chair Jerome Powell will vote independently and won't hesitate to dissent as a board member, EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco predicts. This adds an intriguing layer of internal dynamics to the Fed's current hawkish stance.

Warsh Swearing-In Developments

• Oath of Office: Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed chair by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas in the...

Sticky inflation and the Fed's higher-for-longer stance are keeping rate-cut expectations muted, supporting the US dollar near 100 on the DXY.

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Trump pledged Warsh would be “totally independent” at the White House swearing-in, urging him to “just do your own thing.” Yet Sen. Warren immediately...

• Inherits mixed economy with low unemployment, AI layoffs, surging inflation and negative real wages
• Fiscal forces may increasingly constrain...

BlackRock breaks from consensus, arguing labor market pressures justify rate cuts under new Chair Warsh.

• BMO counters that rising long-term...

Kevin Warsh's May 22 swearing-in as Fed Chair marks a shift toward reform-focused policy and reduced reliance on forward guidance.

• Retreat from...

Upcoming US data releases could shift market views on Fed policy sustainability.

• Core PCE (May 28) is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and will...

Trump and Fed Chair Warsh's fates are now tied for better or worse, directly linking political outcomes to the central bank's leadership stability.

Despite renewed speculation with Kevin Warsh's nomination, Goldman Sachs sees a very high threshold for any substantial Fed balance sheet reduction....

Kevin Warsh's June 17 FOMC debut faces market skepticism over stability messaging amid tariff-driven inflation and AI disruptions.

• Market test:...

April FOMC Minutes on Policy Risks

• 🔥 Rate Hike Warnings: A majority of officials stated some policy firming would likely become appropriate if...

Markets may underestimate the Fed's institutional hawkishness under Warsh, as FOMC gravity shifts toward neutrality or tightening despite his dovish...