Experts flag rising July rate hike odds under Warsh
Key Questions
What are the odds of a July Fed rate hike according to Kalshi?
Kalshi pricing shows 64% odds of a rate hike by July 2027 amid persistent inflation concerns.
Why is Ed Yardeni calling for a July rate hike?
Yardeni points to persistent inflation and supply shocks as reasons for a potential July tightening under the new Fed leadership.
How do experts view rate hike prospects under Warsh?
Analysts like Yardeni see rising odds of a hike, contrasting with earlier expectations of prolonged rate holds.
What market signals support higher odds of Fed tightening?
Rising Treasury yields and shifting futures pricing indicate traders are increasingly anticipating a possible rate increase.
How does the current outlook differ from previous rate cut expectations?
The narrative has shifted from expecting cuts to pricing in potential hikes, with ETF rotations reflecting the repriced bets.
Yardeni and Kalshi (64% odds by July 2027) highlight hike risks from persistent inflation and supply shocks. Swaps show >80% tightening by end-2026, contrasting prolonged-hold views.