Fed Rate Tracker

Systematic sentiment tracking reveals when Fed language is pivoting even if the headline stance stays the same.

• Direction beats level: A committee...

Fed rate hikes are curbing consumer spending while surging energy prices keep inflation elevated, adding fresh strain to the US economy.

Fed communication shifts risk appetite independently of the expected rate path, explaining most policy-driven moves in risk assets. Interest-rate...

• Credit cards and variable rates face immediate pressure as the Fed raised its benchmark 0.25% to the 3.75%-4% range on Sept. 16, pushing costs...

Oil prices above $100 a barrel from Middle East disruptions drove August headline CPI to 3.4% while core inflation held at 2.4%, as energy costs...

When FOMC projections show tight alignment, surprises in the federal funds rate path trigger outsized market reactions, according to analysis of 43...

• Credit cards and auto loans will see rates climb within months as the prime rate adjusts.
• Mortgage rates already hit 6.76% for 30-year fixed,...

The Fed raised rates by 0.25 points for the first time since 2023, citing inflation that has stayed too high for too long.

• Warsh's stance:...

The Fed's first 25bp hike since 2023 signals renewed commitment to price stability, with the SEP showing sixteen members expecting further increases....

The Fed delivered its first rate increase in years, lifting the target to 3.75%-4.00% while signaling one more hike ahead.

• Projections shifted...

The 25bp hike to 3.75-4% was unanimous and widely expected, but the dot plot carries the real weight.

• Policy path: 16 of 18 officials see another...

August retail sales jumped +1.2% versus the +0.8% consensus, with ex-autos even stronger at +1.4%, while import prices rose +0.7% against +0.4%...

Mortgage rates have risen sharply due to climbing 10-year Treasury yields pushing 30-year fixed rates near 7%, even before the Fed's hike, as bond...

Surging Treasury yields are raising borrowing costs economy-wide and could factor into the Fed's rate deliberations as part of financial conditions,...

美联储加息预期本周落地，但Warsh的前瞻指引与点阵图或将重新定价美元、黄金、股市和美债收益率。

Asian investors positioned defensively yet optimistically for the Fed's widely anticipated first rate hike in three years, with major indices climbing...

Unsustainable public finances are causing U.S. and global sovereign bond markets to become unstuck, bolstering the case for preserving Federal Reserve discretion in policy responses.

Mortgage rates have climbed sharply ahead of this week's expected Fed hike, tightening affordability for homebuyers now.

• 30-year fixed rate hit...

• Rate hike already 85-90% priced in, so the decision itself reveals little new information to markets.
• Inflation stems from oil supply shocks and...

A quarter-point rate increase expected Wednesday will ripple quickly to consumer products.

• Credit cards: Variable APRs, already above 20%, could hit...