Fed Rate Tracker

The July 8 release of Kevin Warsh's first FOMC minutes as chair will face heavy scrutiny from investors seeking early signals on his policy stance and the odds of rate changes.

Citi Research sees June's weak jobs data — just 57,000 new payrolls with prior months revised down 74,000 — as eliminating any justification for...

Markets await Thursday's June FOMC minutes—the first under Chair Warsh—for fresh signals on inflation and year-end rate hikes, with a December 25bp...

Warsh's Hawkish Commitment

• 🔥 Inflation Vow: Kevin Warsh said he will stick firmly to the 2-percent inflation target and “disappoint” anyone...

Kevin Warsh is steering the Fed toward tighter policy, prioritizing inflation control over labor concerns after energy shocks pushed prices near...

• FOMC June meeting minutes drop Wednesday as the week's main event, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
• Warsh's known skepticism on projections,...

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high while noting inflation risks have come down since the June meeting, but he declined any forward guidance on rate moves before the July 28-29 FOMC.

Multiple fronts reinforce expectations for further Fed rate hikes:

• QNB forecast: Markets fully price in a 25bp hike by year-end
• Treasury yields:...

• Market signals show 45.4% odds of a September 25 bps hike via CME FedWatch, fueled by Allianz inflation forecasts above 3.7%.
• Institutional view...

Meaningful Fed balance sheet reduction is unlikely because QT always proves smaller and shorter than QE, as markets lack the stomach for the higher...

Kevin Warsh's first international appearance as Fed chair at the ECB Sintra forum underscored institutional continuity, independence, and central bank...

The upcoming FOMC minutes from the May meeting—Waller's first as chair—could deliver a hawkish echo from before the weak payrolls, potentially lifting...

Warsh Fed Era Begins

• 🔥 Balance Sheet and QT Shift: Kevin Warsh confirmed interest rates as the dominant policy tool while signaling a slower...

Trump publicly labeled Kevin Warsh as one of the FOMC's more dovish voices, while criticizing a "hostile" board that might resist lower rates. The...

After June's weak payrolls pushed December's quarter-point hike fully priced in while slashing July odds to 18%, attention turns to two catalysts.

-...

Warsh's first meeting left rates at 3.50%-3.75% while launching five task forces on communications, balance sheet, data, productivity, and inflation...

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise: nine of nineteen officials now project at least one rate hike by year-end, up from zero...

June FOMC minutes, due this week, will reveal how policymakers assess persistent inflation and a resilient economy.

• Wells Fargo view: Expect a...

The June FOMC minutes, releasing July 9, will highlight splits on whether inflation warrants hikes or reflects temporary supply shocks.

• Committee...

New Fed Chair Warsh has resumed quantitative tightening, shrinking the balance sheet for the first time in weeks.

June payrolls added just 57,000...