Fed Rate Tracker

Bloomberg's economics newsletter argues that the Fed is among the midterm elections' winners, or at least its autonomy is. The piece frames the risks...

The Fed held short-term rates steady last week. An opinion piece argues that holding again in December would require a better explanation. That is the...

The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting tool projects inflation rising again, but these are model estimates, not Fed rate decisions or policy...

Economists Giannoni and Primiceri argue that demand, not just supply problems, was the main force behind the post-pandemic inflation surge. Their...

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to be led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a strident critic who would replace a Warsh supporter.

• Confirmation...

Banks have enjoyed falling funding costs, with total funding at 1.87% in 2Q 2026 versus a 2.23% peak. The September hike could bring funding...

Friday's October jobs report could significantly shape how markets view the Fed's policy path, at least until the November report in early December....

Two channels are linking AI-driven markets and Fed expectations:

• Markets are repricing the Fed: AI-related selling has led markets to reassess how...

Democrats' coming Senate control is seen as a major guardrail against Trump landing more allies at the Fed, since the Senate holds a key say over...

The article argues that if inflation makes no progress toward 2%, the Fed will likely raise rates further or at least hold off on cuts. It also raises...

The minutes come out three weeks (21 days) after each rate decision, at 2:00 p.m. ET. With 8 scheduled meetings a year, there are 8 release dates. For...

This lesson explains how the Fed pursues its mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, but it doesn't reflect current policy settings.

• Core...

A Renaissance Macro economist expects the Fed to take back all 75 basis points of last year's cuts, and possibly more. This is one economist's outlook, not Fed guidance or a Committee decision.

The Bank of Canada moves first, but the Fed's release is the bigger event.

• Morning: The BoC issues a statement-only rate decision at 09:45 ET, with...

Mortgage rates have eased even as a December hike looks likely. Freddie Mac's 30-year averaged 7.24% on October 29, while the 10-year Treasury fell to...

Financial conditions have tightened, but TD Economics still considers them accommodative by historical standards. The main driver is uncertainty more...

Chatham Financial's Amol Dhargalkar argues rates will keep moving, so borrowers and investors should manage risk early.

• Inflation has been above...

The final FOMC meeting of 2026 concludes on Wednesday, December 9, running December 8–9.

• 2:00 p.m. EST (19:00 UTC): Policy Statement and Summary of...

Thomas Rupf, CIO Asia at VP Bank, suggests high yields could offer fixed income investors a cushion, potentially letting U.S. Treasuries deliver...

Kevin Warsh's "among the most significant in the last two decades" remark described market interest-rate increases, not a Fed rate hike. He was...