Sticky inflation/jobs pressures with hike warnings post-cut
Key Questions
What labor market concerns did Fed's Goolsbee express?
Goolsbee noted labor market is balanced but weak and shock-prone, with no recession yet, amid PCE at 2.8% and core at 3% stalled by energy and tariffs.
Why is Fed's Jefferson cautious on labor gains?
Jefferson remains cautious about labor market fragility despite gains, highlighting sticky core inflation and economic uncertainty.
What recent job data supports sticky inflation pressures?
March NFP added 178k jobs, unemployment at 4.3%, wages up 3.5%; Services PMI at 49.8 signals contraction risks amid persistent inflation.
What do inflation nowcasts show for March and April?
Cleveland nowcast shows March CPI core at 3.25%, April at 3.28%; overall CPI 3.1-3.5%, core 2.7%, PCE 2.8%, above Fed targets.
Under what conditions would Fed officials consider hikes?
Hammack, Goolsbee, and Williams indicate hikes possible if inflation exceeds 2%, especially with high gas prices from Iran war and sticky core PCE.
What does the NY Fed survey reveal about inflation expectations?
March NY Fed survey shows near-term expectations jumping to 3.4%, with longer-term at 3.1%, signaling rising inflation concerns.
How does Williams view core inflation amid oil surges?
Williams sees core inflation steady at ~2.5% this year despite oil price surges, maintaining a cautious outlook.
What are February PCE forecasts relative to Fed's target?
Forecasts show February PCE above the 2% target, with core at 3.0%, indicating stalled disinflation progress.
Goolsbee Detroit: labor balanced weak shock-prone/PCE2.8/core3 stalled energy/tariffs no rec/stagfl; Jefferson cautious labor fragility sticky core; Hammack/Goolsbee/Williams hikes if>2%; NY survey3.4%, PCE~2.8-3%/Feb core fcast3.0%; NFP Mar178k/unemp4.3/wages3.5; Services PMI49.8; Cleveland nowcast Mar3.25/Apr3.28/CPI3.1-3.5/core2.7/PCE2.8.