Policy & Finance Brief

US Economic Indicators

• NY Fed Services PMI: NY Fed Services Sector PMI ticked up slightly in March but remained in contraction and hasn’t broken...

• Manufacturing boost: US output increases, with Industrial Production and Empire State Survey noted.
• Housing signal: NAHB/Wells Fargo index rises 1...

Geopolitical drivers fuel defense boom: US military action in Venezuela and Greenland ambitions, plus Middle East escalation now in third week and...

NY Fed Services Sector PMI ticked up slightly in March but remained in contraction and hasn’t broken the downtrend over the past couple years—highlighting persistent economic soft spots in services.

30-year fixed rates slipped to 6.29% for top-tier borrowers ahead of the Fed meeting, but spring homebuyers continue facing affordability pressures.

Fiscal insanity in Van Hollen's "Working Americans' Tax Cut Act": caps tax at 25.5% above $46k single/$92k couples, but spikes marginal rates to 30%...

Election-year voter proof battle heats up:

• Trump's push: Bill requires citizenship proof for registration/polls to "guarantee midterms".
• Senate...

Iran conflict fuels Fed split: War halts 1/5 global oil, surges crude 50%, pushing inflation above 2% target for 5 years and sparking hike talk...

First senior public dissent against Iran war from counterterrorism chief Joe Kent.

• Tensions surface over Trump's attack decision, highlighting...

Quick hits on risks spilling over:

• Cuba grid collapse leaves millions powerless, including Havana; restoration underway.
• Karzai accuses Pakistan...

Indonesia is crafting a geopolitical identity as a middle power in the Indo-Pacific, a strategic space defined by significant geopolitical dynamics from major power rivalries.

US Political Gridlock

• 🔥 Trump Freezes All Bills: President Trump has announced a freeze on all pending legislation until the SAVE America Act,...

Monumental shift as Cuban President Díaz-Canel confirms direct talks with the US, led by top leaders including Raúl Castro. Driven by Cuba's...

Multi-angle volatility from US-Iran conflict:

• Trump approval slumping as public skips rally for war—first in Hasan's lifetime
• Freight rates...

Critical threats to retirement planning for older Americans:

• Social Security uncertainties
• Medicare challenges
• Fiscal policy risks
  Near-retirees must prioritize these in strategies.

Global debt risks are escalating as sovereign bond issuance hit record levels in 2025 and stays near historic highs in 2026, per OECD—amid sustained high rates.

Jerome Powell allegedly tried to strong-arm his way out of a criminal probe, with Robert Hur—who let Biden off on classified docs—seeking to kill the subpoenas. The subpoenas aim to dictate compliance.

What should have been a year of renewed drive for China has begun with an unexpected jolt for President Xi Jinping, whose hold over the political landscape is under pressure.

Diverse global angles on US military pivot to Middle East:

• German AfD criticism: Co-leader Chrupalla denounces US-Israel "war against Iran" as Trump...

Unanimous decision protects reliance on existing laws, reshaping SSI, SSDI, and retirement benefits nationwide.

Impacts for actuarial/finance pros:
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