How AI/AGI, Cyber Capabilities, and National Tech Strategies Are Reshaping Great-Power Competition in 2026

In 2026, the global strategic landscape is experiencing a seismic shift driven by unparalleled advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and sophisticated cyber capabilities. These technological domains are no longer peripheral but central to great-power competition, fundamentally altering notions of sovereignty, influence, and security. As nations race to dominate these frontiers, they are engaging in a complex chess game characterized by massive investments, strategic alliances, and normative struggles—heralding a new era where technological mastery equates to geopolitical power.

The New Centrality of Technological Sovereignty

At the core of this transformation lies the recognition that technological sovereignty—the ability to control and steer future AI, cyber, and space technologies—has become the new currency of international influence. Leading powers such as the United States, China, the European Union, India, and Russia are fiercely competing for dominance over compute infrastructure, talent pools, and critical supply chains—especially for semiconductors and rare earth elements vital for high-tech manufacturing.

Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, encapsulated this paradigm shift by stating, “AI will reshape geopolitics,” emphasizing that the leader in AI will set global norms and shape the emerging international order. The pursuit of AGI—machines capable of human-like reasoning—has profound strategic implications, influencing military dominance, cyber warfare, space control, and information supremacy.

Driving Forces Reshaping Global Competition

1. Massive Investments in Compute, Talent, and Critical Supply Chains

• Compute Infrastructure: Countries are investing heavily in exascale data centers, state-of-the-art chips, and quantum computing to accelerate AI innovation.
• Talent and Innovation: Governments incentivize AI research, software engineering, and hardware manufacturing to develop a highly skilled domestic workforce.
• Semiconductor and Mineral Control: Securing advanced lithography, foundries, and critical minerals—such as lithium, gallium, and rare earths—has become a strategic priority amid US-China tensions over technological access.

2. Autonomous Cyber Operations and Agentic Warfare

• Cyber Warfare Escalation: Autonomous AI systems now independently conduct reconnaissance, sabotage, and offensive cyber attacks, increasing speed, precision, and unpredictability.
• Targeted Infrastructure Attacks: Recent intelligence reports reveal surges in cyber intrusions targeting satellites, space assets, and undersea cables—the global backbone of communications and commerce.
• Space and Undersea Domains: Autonomous cyber agents pose threats to disrupt space navigation and communication systems, cripple undersea infrastructure, risking economic shocks and military vulnerabilities.

3. Resource Geopolitics and Critical Minerals

• Strategic Minerals: Control over lithium, rare earths, gallium, and titanium has become as crucial as oil for maintaining technological sovereignty.
• Emerging Hotspots:
  • Arctic: Melting ice opens new shipping routes and resource deposits, prompting Russia and China to expand military bases and infrastructure.
  • Greenland and Somaliland: Rich mineral deposits and strategic positions make these regions focal points of geopolitical rivalry.
• Port and Infrastructure Investments: China’s acquisitions, exemplified by Piraeus in Greece, aim to shape global logistics, enabling military access and economic influence along critical trade routes.

Domains of Great-Power Competition

Space: The Final Frontier of Power

• Chinese Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellite Constellations: China’s deployment of extensive LEO satellite networks aims to challenge US dominance and set orbital norms favorable to Chinese strategic interests.
• Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Capabilities: Advances in hypersonic missiles and space-based missile systems threaten to undermine existing space security frameworks, escalating fears of space militarization and proliferation of weaponization norms.

Maritime: Securing Critical Trade and Resources

• Maritime Choke Points: The Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and Arctic are becoming hotspots of strategic contestation, vital for global trade routes and resource access.
• Port Holdings and Naval Expansion: China’s influence in ports like Piraeus supports maritime mobility, naval logistics, and regional influence, complicating US-led security architectures.

Energy Markets: Volatility and Transition

• Current Disruptions: The Russia–Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ policies have driven oil prices to $120–$150 per barrel, heightening energy insecurity.
• Transition to Resilience:
  • Countries are accelerating investments in renewable energy, energy storage, and grid modernization.
  • These efforts aim to reduce dependency on geopolitically vulnerable fossil fuels, fostering strategic independence and energy security.

Escalation Risks and Normative Gaps

The proliferation of AI-enabled military and cyber tools significantly amplifies the risk of accidental conflicts or miscalculations, especially in space and cyber domains. The erosion of arms control agreements—notably regarding hypersonic missiles, anti-satellite systems, and nuclear modernization—further fuels security dilemmas.

Simultaneously, the absence of international norms governing autonomous cyber operations, space militarization, and AI weaponization creates a lawless frontier vulnerable to misuse, miscalculation, and escalation.

Recent Developments and Analytical Insights

• Sanctions as a Strategic Tool: Discussions at the Valdai Discussion Club have highlighted how the US employs sanctions as a means of economic coercion and strategic influence, attempting to shape global responses and alliances in a multipolar order.

• Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: The RIETI report emphasizes that geopolitical risks, such as disputes over resource access, are accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains by localizing mining, stockpiling minerals, and building alternative sources—especially as dependence on China remains a critical vulnerability.

• AI’s Strategic Role: A diplomacy expert underscores the importance of integrating AI into national security and diplomatic strategies. Effective AI-driven diplomacy can facilitate norm-setting, conflict prevention, and international cooperation, but requires careful navigation of ethical, strategic, and technological considerations.

Policy Responses and Strategic Directions

1. Building Resilience and Securing Critical Infrastructure

• Supply Chain Diversification: Countries are reducing reliance on potentially unstable regions through local sourcing, strategic reserves, and alternative supply chains.
• Infrastructure Hardening: Major investments focus on protecting cyber, space, and undersea infrastructure from attack and disruption.
• Technological Deterrence and Resilience: Enhancing technological superiority and resilient systems aims to deter aggression and minimize damage in the event of conflict.

2. Norm-Setting and International Governance

• Establishing Norms: International coalitions are pushing to set norms that limit autonomous cyber operations and prevent space weaponization.
• Reviving Arms Control: Efforts are underway to reinvigorate treaties addressing hypersonic weapons, anti-satellite systems, and nuclear modernization—aiming to manage arms races and avoid escalation.

3. Strengthening Alliances and Early-Warning Capabilities

• Multilateral Coordination: Countries are deepening AI research partnerships, resource-sharing agreements, and joint military exercises to coordinate strategies.
• Enhanced Intelligence and Early Warning: Improving cyber threat detection, space surveillance, and undersea monitoring enables swift responses to emerging threats and conflict prevention.

The Current Status and Future Outlook

The year 2026 witnesses a world where technological dominance is the defining axis of great-power rivalry. The race for AI/AGI capabilities, cyber supremacy, and resource control has created a multipolar order where technological mastery directly impacts global influence.

While efforts toward cooperation are ongoing, normative gaps, escalation risks, and arms races loom large. Policymakers face the critical challenge of shaping a framework that fosters stability, resilience, and normative governance in these new domains.

The choices made today—whether to pursue competitive dominance or constructive cooperation—will shape whether the international community navigates these transformative forces toward peace and stability or succumbs to escalation and chaos.

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In this era of rapid technological change, the integration of strategic innovation, resilient infrastructures, and international norms is essential. Managing the delicate balance of competition and cooperation in space, cyber, and critical resource domains is vital to prevent catastrophe and forge a sustainable, secure future. The future of global stability hinges on how effectively the world's powers manage their rivalry within these new frontiers.