Israel’s New Strategic Era and India’s Positioning Between the West and the Global South: Navigating a Multipolar World in 2026

As the global order shifts under the weight of rapid technological innovation, resource competition, and emerging alliances, both Israel and India are evolving strategically to safeguard their interests and influence. Their approaches exemplify broader trends within a multipolar landscape, where traditional power centers are challenged by rising nations leveraging space, cyber, and resource domains to carve out new spheres of influence.

Israel’s Strategic Recalibration: From Conventional Security to Technological Sovereignty

Israel’s security calculus is undergoing a profound transformation amid heightened regional tensions and technological race dynamics. Historically focused on conventional military threats, the nation now faces complex challenges in space militarization, cyber warfare, and regional influence.

Space as a New Frontier of Competition

Recent developments underscore the increasing militarization of space:

• Anti-satellite (ASAT) capabilities are proliferating among major powers such as China and Russia, challenging U.S. dominance and threatening existing norms of space use.
• Hypersonic weapons and space-based missile systems are becoming central to national security strategies, increasing the risk of space conflicts and raising questions about the future of space law and norms.

Israel, aware of these shifts, emphasizes technological sovereignty and cyber resilience to counterbalance potential threats. Israel’s investments in space surveillance, cyber infrastructure, and dual-use technology aim to prevent adversaries from gaining the upper hand in these domains.

Regional Dynamics and Strategic Partnerships

The Middle East’s geopolitical landscape is also in flux:

• China’s expanding port investments, such as in Piraeus, and naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, threaten Western maritime dominance.
• Iran’s nuclear ambitions and potential for military escalation pose risks to energy stability and regional security, even amid a temporary oil glut that has diminished energy as a coercive tool.

Israel’s response involves forging resilient partnerships—notably with the U.S. and emerging regional alliances—to develop technologically advanced defense systems and cyber deterrence capabilities. The nation’s strategic goal is to maintain technological superiority and safeguard critical infrastructure amid these complex regional threats.

India’s Balancing Act: Leading in AI, Securing Resources, and Engaging the Global South

India finds itself at a crossroads—straddling its traditional ties with Western powers and its ambition to be a leader within the Global South. Its strategic efforts focus on technological innovation, resource diversification, and diplomatic outreach.

AI as a Strategic and Diplomatic Tool

India’s recent AI summit and ongoing initiatives highlight its aim to:

• Become a global hub for AI development and governance, shaping norms that will influence international standards.
• Use AI to enhance military capabilities and economic competitiveness, with a focus on ethical AI and regulatory frameworks.

Experts like Tanvi Ratna emphasize that AI mastery will be central to future geopolitical influence, determining economic dominance and military deterrence.

Diversification of Critical Minerals and Supply Chains

India recognizes that resource control is vital amid the multipolar competition:

• Partnerships with countries like Brazil for critical minerals—particularly rare earth elements—are part of India’s efforts to counter Chinese dominance in resource markets.
• Supply chain resilience strategies include forging issue-specific alliances—such as cybersecurity and space security minilaterals with Australia, Japan, and the U.S.—to reduce dependency and mitigate risks posed by China’s rise.

Managing Risks and Strategic Ambiguity

India’s approach involves careful diplomacy:

• Engaging with Western allies for shared security interests.
• Maintaining strategic independence to avoid over-reliance on any single bloc.
• Leveraging its position in the Global South to foster issue-specific coalitions that reinforce its influence and demonstrate leadership in global governance.

The Broader Context: Multipolar Competition, Risks, and Norms

Both Israel and India are embedded within a rapidly evolving global order characterized by:

• Technological mastery in AI, space, and cyber domains dictating national power.
• Resource control influencing geopolitical leverage.
• The weaponization of space and autonomous systems increasing the potential for escalation and conflict.

Escalation Risks and Norm Development

• The militarization of space raises concerns about space debris, dual-use technology, and potential conflicts extending beyond Earth.
• Cyber warfare remains a persistent threat, with recent disinformation campaigns (notably Russian efforts) illustrating the vulnerabilities of even the most advanced nations.
• The fragility of alliances and strategic ambiguity, compounded by trade and market measures like tariffs and sanctions, complicate crisis management and increase miscalculation risks.

Shifts in Global Power Dynamics

A recent analysis by Manish Tewari, titled "World Order Collapsed? Manish Tewari Explains US Exhaustion, China’s Rise & India’s Risks", highlights the exhaustion of U.S. dominance, the ascendancy of China, and the strategic vulnerabilities faced by India. Key insights include:

• The U.S., despite technological prowess, faces political exhaustion and geopolitical fatigue, reducing its capacity to lead global stability initiatives.
• China’s rapid technological and military rise continues, challenging U.S. and allied influence, particularly in space and AI.
• India’s strategic risks include over-reliance on external supplies, domestic technological gaps, and navigating U.S.-China tensions without becoming overly entangled in their rivalry.

Implications for the Future

By 2026, the central pillars of global influence will likely be technological mastery and resource control. Israel is focusing on technological sovereignty and regional security, while India aims to lead in AI and resource diversification and forge issue-specific alliances.

The multipolar competition presents both opportunities and risks:

• Opportunities for nations to shape norms and establish resilient partnerships.
• Risks of escalation in space, cyber, and military domains, driven by strategic ambiguity and technological arms races.

The path forward hinges on diplomacy, norm-setting, and confidence-building measures. Whether this multipolar competition evolves into a stable, cooperative international order or spirals into broader conflicts will depend on the choices of key actors like Israel, India, the U.S., China, and regional powers.

In summary, as of 2026:

• Israel is recalibrating to counter regional and technological threats by emphasizing sovereignty and partnerships.
• India is positioning itself as a leader in AI and resource resilience, balancing relations with the West and the Global South.
• The global order remains fragile, with ongoing technological, resource, and strategic competition shaping the prospects for peace and stability in the coming years.