Competition in space infrastructure and advanced AI as emerging arenas of geopolitical rivalry

The ongoing geopolitical competition in 2026 extends beyond terrestrial borders into the high-stakes arena of space infrastructure and advanced artificial intelligence (AI). These emerging domains are increasingly becoming central to national security, economic dominance, and sovereignty, reshaping the global power landscape.

Space as the New Frontier of Geopolitical Rivalry

US–China Competition in Space

Both the United States and China are investing heavily in space capabilities, viewing outer space as a critical strategic domain. The U.S. has prioritized resilient satellite constellations and space situational awareness systems, recognizing the importance of space assets for military and economic leverage. Companies like SpaceX are pioneering asteroid mining and orbiting resource extraction platforms, aiming to support deep space exploration and resource exploitation. These efforts are vital for maintaining technological superiority and securing future resource streams.

China is actively shaping space law to establish sovereignty over extraterrestrial resources, seeking to influence international norms and position space as a new resource domain. Its initiatives to promote space sovereignty and develop legal frameworks mirror terrestrial disputes over Arctic sovereignty, signaling a strategic intent to turn space into a contested resource frontier. China’s "space law norms" aim to secure extraterrestrial resources for strategic advantage, potentially challenging existing international agreements and norms.

Space Infrastructure and Governance

Both nations are also focusing on establishing space governance frameworks. China’s efforts to influence space norm-setting and develop sovereignty claims threaten to alter international governance, potentially leading to conflicts over extraterrestrial resources. Meanwhile, the U.S. emphasizes space security through advanced cyber defenses and anti-satellite technologies—countering threats from cyber-attacks and anti-satellite weaponry.

Strategic Implications

The militarization of space includes deployments of anti-satellite systems and cyber threats targeting satellite networks, increasing the risk of conflicts extending into space. As both superpowers seek to establish dominance, these developments could create a new Cold War-like environment, where space acts as an extension of terrestrial geopolitical tensions.

Advanced AI and the Reshaping of Global Power

AI and AGI’s Potential to Transform Capabilities

Artificial intelligence, especially the potential emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), is poised to revolutionize military, economic, and strategic capabilities. Countries are racing to develop and deploy AI-enabled technologies to gain advantages in resource extraction, defense, and cyber operations.

Technological Strategies

• The US prioritizes commercialization, scale, and innovation, investing heavily in AI to enhance military systems, resource management, and cybersecurity.
• China is leveraging AI-enabled mining technologies—autonomous drilling, real-time resource assessment, and automated processing—to maximize terrestrial resource extraction while reducing reliance on Western infrastructure. Its efforts to establish space law norms also involve securing extraterrestrial resources through AI-driven automation and legal frameworks.

Geopolitical Impact of AI

The proliferation of AI tools can dramatically alter the balance of power, enabling smaller nations or non-state actors to challenge traditional powers. AI's ability to improve resource exploration, optimize supply chains, and secure critical infrastructure makes it a strategic asset in the evolving competition over critical minerals and space resources.

Legal and Policy Challenges

Legal frameworks in 2026 reflect mounting tensions. A pivotal Supreme Court ruling has limited the U.S. President’s authority to impose tariffs via executive orders, constraining rapid policy responses. Despite this, political figures advocate for tariffs and policies aimed at reinforcing resource sovereignty, including expanding domestic extraction and diversifying regional energy dependencies.

Cyber and Military Risks

The integration of AI into space infrastructure and critical mineral supply chains heightens systemic risks. Cyber threats targeting satellites, orbital systems, and resource extraction facilities could disrupt operations, emphasizing the need for resilient cybersecurity measures and international cooperation to prevent escalation.

The Broader Strategic Context

The competition over space resources and advanced AI is intertwined with terrestrial conflicts in regions like Greenland, the Arctic, Africa, and the Middle East. The melting Arctic has revealed vast mineral deposits, prompting militarization and resource diplomacy among Russia, China, and Western nations. Greenland's untapped mineral wealth has intensified strategic interests, with the U.S. increasing military presence to secure Arctic access, echoing Cold War tensions.

In Africa, control over critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and rare earths remains vital for high-tech industries and renewable energy. Disruptions in oil markets and regional stability further complicate the geopolitical landscape.

Conclusion

By 2026, space and AI have become pivotal arenas for great power competition, equaling traditional terrestrial conflicts in importance. Control over extraterrestrial resources, space infrastructure, and advanced AI capabilities will shape the future global order. As nations forge ahead, establishing norms, legal frameworks, and strategic alliances is essential to prevent escalation and promote stability in these high-stakes domains.

Policymakers and stakeholders must prioritize resilience, innovation, and international cooperation—because the nations that dominate these emerging frontiers will define the geopolitical landscape for decades to come.