Geopolitics of Greenland, the Arctic, and North American/European defence in a warming, contested region

The Geopolitics of Greenland and the Arctic in an Era of Warming and Strategic Competition

As climate change accelerates, the Arctic region is transforming from a remote, icy wilderness into a critical arena for geopolitical contestation. The melting ice caps are unveiling vast mineral deposits and creating new shipping routes, prompting major powers to stake their claims and bolster their military and economic positions. Greenland, with its strategic location and estimated mineral wealth of over $900 billion, has become a focal point in this high-stakes race.

US and Allied Interests in Greenland and the Arctic

The United States has intensified its interest in Greenland, recognizing its vital strategic importance. Historically a Cold War hotspot, Greenland's significance has resurged amid the region's newfound accessibility. The U.S. has increased military presence and infrastructure investments, aiming to secure Arctic security and access to vital resources. This includes deploying additional military assets and establishing bases to monitor regional developments and counter increasing Russian and Chinese activities.

Russia’s militarization of the Arctic is well-documented, with expanded icebreaker fleets, new military bases, and deployment of missile systems. Moscow seeks to project power over Arctic resources and shipping lanes like the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. Meanwhile, China’s “Ice Silk Road” initiative exemplifies its ambition to influence Arctic shipping and resource control, asserting a strategic foothold in the region.

Greenland’s mineral wealth—rich in rare earth elements, lithium, nickel, and gallium—has reignited Western interest. Former President Trump’s 2019 proposal to consider annexation of Greenland underscored its strategic importance. Although that move was met with diplomatic resistance, it highlighted Greenland’s potential as a key resource and military outpost. The U.S. and its allies view Greenland as a critical node in regional and global resource geopolitics, aiming to prevent adversaries from gaining uncontested control.

Military Preparations and Regional Tensions

The Arctic has become a militarized frontier, with nations expanding their icebreaker fleets, upgrading air and naval bases, and conducting joint exercises. The U.S. has been pushing for enhanced Arctic military preparedness, with lawmakers from Alaska advocating for increased investments in Arctic defense infrastructure. This echoes Cold War-era tensions but now includes new actors and technological challenges.

Russia’s military expansion, including the deployment of advanced missile systems and the revival of strategic bases, underscores its intent to assert sovereignty and control over Arctic resources and shipping lanes. China’s growing Arctic footprint, driven by its “Ice Silk Road,” adds a third dimension to regional tensions, as Beijing seeks influence over shipping routes and resource rights.

Resource Potential and Geopolitical Competition

The Arctic’s untapped mineral deposits and new shipping routes are central to the geopolitics of the region. The melting ice makes these resources more accessible, intensifying competition among global powers. The U.S. aims to secure access and establish safe passage for commercial shipping, while Russia and China seek to maximize their share of the region’s economic benefits.

In addition to Arctic dynamics, Greenland’s mineral deposits are attracting international attention. With the global race for critical minerals—essential for batteries, renewables, and high-tech industries—Greenland’s resources are highly coveted. The U.S. and allied nations view control over these deposits as vital for maintaining technological and economic superiority.

Legal and Normative Shifts

Legal frameworks governing Arctic sovereignty are evolving amid rising tensions. A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling has limited the President’s authority to impose tariffs via executive orders, constraining rapid policy responses. Nonetheless, political figures continue to advocate for resource protection measures. China is actively shaping space law to establish sovereignty claims over extraterrestrial resources, reflecting a broader strategy to contest resource domains—both terrestrial and extraterrestrial.

Outer Space as the Next Resource Arena

Both the U.S. and China are heavily investing in space infrastructure to secure extraterrestrial resources. The U.S., through companies like SpaceX, is developing asteroid mining and orbiting resource extraction platforms, aiming to support deep space exploration. China is working to influence space governance by promoting norms of space sovereignty and establishing legal frameworks favorable to its strategic interests.

This space competition echoes terrestrial disputes, with nations seeking to establish sovereignty over celestial resources. The proliferation of space assets, cyber threats targeting satellites, and anti-satellite weapon development further complicate the security landscape, making space a new frontier of strategic rivalry.

Conclusion

The year 2026 marks a pivotal point in the race for critical resources and strategic dominance. The Arctic, Greenland, and outer space are now interconnected frontlines in this complex geopolitical contest. Control over Arctic shipping lanes, mineral deposits, and extraterrestrial resources will shape the future global order.

Policymakers face the challenge of establishing norms and legal frameworks that prevent escalation while safeguarding national interests. As nations invest heavily in military, technological, and diplomatic strategies, resilience, innovation, and strategic alliances will be essential. Ultimately, those who succeed in controlling the resources of tomorrow—whether beneath the ice or beyond Earth—will define the global balance of power for generations to come.

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Relevant Articles to the Theme:

• "Mark Carney Responds To Trump Greenland ‘Golden Dome’ Push As He Announces Canada Defense Plan" — Highlights international responses to Greenland’s strategic importance.
• "Trump's push for Greenland reveals a political weak spot, new poll finds" — Reflects the geopolitical significance and domestic debates surrounding Greenland.
• "The $900 Billion Resource Map the U.S. Can’t Ignore Anymore" — Emphasizes Greenland’s mineral wealth and the U.S. focus on resource security.
• "Skating on Thin Ice: The Geopolitics of Greenland and the Arctic" — Provides an in-depth analysis of regional tensions and strategic interests.
• "How the U.S. military is preparing for growing geopolitical tensions in the Arctic" — Details military investments and preparedness in the Arctic region.

This comprehensive overview demonstrates that the Arctic and Greenland are at the heart of a new era of geopolitical competition driven by climate change, resource scarcity, and technological advancements—shaping the future of global power dynamics.