Critical minerals, tariffs, BRICS de‑dollarization and resource strategies in great‑power rivalry

Critical Minerals, Resource Strategies, and Great-Power Financial Competition in 2026

In the evolving geopolitical landscape of 2026, control over critical minerals and strategic resource management have become central to the global power struggle, complementing advancements in AI, cyber, and space domains. These resources underpin technological sovereignty, military capabilities, and economic resilience, making their strategic importance rival that of traditional energy supplies.

Critical Minerals and Resource Maps: The New Geopolitical Leverage

Rare earth elements—vital for high-tech manufacturing, military hardware, and green technologies—are now a primary battleground. China maintains dominant control over the majority of global rare earth supply chains, affording Beijing significant leverage in both economic and strategic arenas. As highlighted in recent analyses, nations are actively seeking diversification to reduce dependency, turning their attention to resource-rich regions such as Greenland and Somaliland, which are attracting increased geopolitical interest due to their untapped mineral reserves.

The geopolitical importance of these resources is exemplified by initiatives like the Gulf states' efforts to pivot from oil to critical mineral extraction. For instance, Saudi Arabia's strategy involves geological surveying, regulatory reforms, and fostering foreign partnerships to develop its mineral wealth, recognizing that future technological dominance hinges on resource security.

Resource maps projecting a potential $900 billion worth of critical mineral deposits in key regions emphasize the magnitude of this strategic competition. These maps underscore the US’s growing concern that access to these resources, especially in the face of US-China decoupling, is vital to maintaining technological and military edge.

Resource Control as a Strategic and Economic Tool

Control over critical resources also intersects with energy markets. Despite recent volatility, the Persian Gulf remains a hotspot due to Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional conflicts. However, oil glut conditions have temporarily diminished energy as a coercive tool, exposing vulnerabilities in energy-dependent economies.

In tandem, gold and silver markets are experiencing shifts driven by global financial competition. With China’s efforts to de-dollarize and bolster its gold reserves, there is speculation that China is quietly replacing the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency. Articles such as "Gold Surge 2026: Is China Quietly Replacing the U.S. Dollar?" highlight how precious metals are becoming key components of decentralized financial strategies among great powers. Gold, in particular, is viewed as a hedge against dollar fluctuations and a tool for diplomatic influence.

De-Dollarlization and Financial Competition

The geopolitical contest extends into financial spheres, where BRICS nations are pushing efforts to dollar de‑dollarization through increased use of local currencies and gold reserves. The initiative seeks to circumvent US sanctions and reduce reliance on US-controlled financial infrastructure.

Simultaneously, tariffs and trade policies remain tools of strategic influence. For example, recent debates within Western alliances reflect a tension between protecting economic interests and maintaining alliance cohesion—evidenced by the blocking of tariffs on Canada—highlighting the fragility of transatlantic unity amid broader strategic competition.

Trade conflicts, combined with tariffs and export controls, threaten to fragment global markets. This fragmentation complicates resource supply chains, especially for critical minerals, and hampers coordinated responses to emerging security threats.

Great-Power Rivalry in the Financial and Resource Domains

The great-power rivalry in 2026 is characterized by a multipolar competition involving the US, China, Russia, and emerging alliances like BRICS. China’s de‑dollarization efforts, including gold accumulation and promoting alternative payment systems, aim to challenge the US dollar’s dominance. Simultaneously, Russia’s strategic resource investments and militarization of Arctic shipping routes further complicate the geopolitical environment.

BRICS and other emerging blocs are actively seeking to establish new financial norms and resource-sharing arrangements, aiming to diminish Western influence. The gold and precious metals markets are at the forefront of this shift, serving as both reserve assets and tools of influence.

Risks and Future Outlook

The intense scramble for critical minerals and financial dominance introduces significant escalation risks, especially as nations develop autonomous cyber and military capabilities. The weaponization of space, domain-specific conflicts in the Arctic and maritime regions, and the weaponization of disinformation pose new challenges for crisis management and stability.

Norm-setting in space, cybersecurity, and resource diplomacy will be crucial. The establishment of international norms and confidence-building measures could prevent conflicts from escalating, but current trends suggest a high-stakes race that may push the boundaries of peaceful competition.

Conclusion

By 2026, control over critical minerals and financial dominance—particularly through de-dollarization and precious metals markets—have become as vital as traditional military power. Great powers are engaged in a relentless race to secure these resources, leveraging political, economic, and military tools. The outcome of this competition will shape the future international order, determining whether cooperative norms can be established or if strategic rivalry will escalate into broader conflicts driven by the pursuit of technological and resource superiority.