Market Expectations and Prediction Markets

Polymarket sees $100M in FOMC wagers, Citadel bets on a hike. Treasury yields near 5% (10yr 4.614%, 30yr near 5.1%). Market pricing shows uncertainty with 76% hold, 33% hike odds. Markets also pricing 76% chance of a September hike. These signals are closely watched for positioning. Bitcoin vulnerable to surprise hike.