Fed Econ Indicators

Multiple forces converge on Wednesday's decision:

• Fed likely holds at 3.5-3.75% but statement language may turn hawkish.
• Markets price ~30% chance...

Mortgage rates often shift without Fed announcements, driven by three key indicators tracked weekly.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield tracks most closely...

Markets are bracing for unchanged rates at the July 29 FOMC but signaling a hawkish tilt through positioning.

• Bonds: 10-year yields rose to 4.614%...

Kevin Warsh's inclusion of M2 in the Fed's latest Monetary Policy Report marks a subtle revival of money supply analysis for spotting longer-term...

• Warsh faces stubborn inflation above 2% for five years plus affordability strains, with geopolitical risks and tariffs limiting rate impact.
• He...

June data releases highlight cooling growth alongside persistent inflation pressures ahead of the July FOMC.

• Goods trade deficit narrowed to...

The FOMC begins its two-day meeting today, with the rate decision due at 2 p.m. ET tomorrow and a press conference by Chair Kevin Warsh.

• Rate...

U.S. GDP likely expanded at a 1.8% annualized rate in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1 and below the 2.3% long-term average.

• Much of the growth stems from...

Markets price in roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25bp rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with the federal funds target range steady at...

Kalshi markets assign 76% odds the Fed holds rates steady at Wednesday's FOMC decision, closely tracking CME FedWatch at 71.7%. Despite energy price...

• Markets price a 30% chance of a surprise rate hike despite expectations of a hold at 3.50%-3.75%.
• Inflation at 3.5% above the 2% target, plus oil...

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's favored phrase that inflation is a choice offers a subtle signal on how the central bank may tackle rising consumer prices...

Grocery prices have climbed roughly 25% since 2019, outpacing Social Security COLA increases for many retirees.

• The gap stems from using CPI-W...

Will the Federal Reserve raise rates at the end of its two-day meeting?

• Markets price just a 31% chance of a quarter-point hike, even as inflation...

The Fed is unlikely to deliver rate cuts or hikes at its July 28–29 FOMC meeting, leaving mortgage brokers to focus instead on new Chair Kevin Warsh's...

June CPI cooling to 3.5% gives the Fed room to hold rates tomorrow, with markets pricing a 64% chance of no change. Yet rising oil prices from...

The weak June CPI reading has effectively ruled out a July rate hike, with the Fed likely to stay on hold through the rest of 2026. Key disinflation drivers include fading tariff pressures, consumer pushback on prices, and normalizing housing costs.

30-year Treasury yields near 5% have closed in the high-4% range or higher on only about 20 trading days over the past decade. New Fed Chair Kevin...

Inflation has exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years with rates held at 3.5%-3.75%.

• Markets assign minimal odds to rate cuts from July...

Recent CPI and jobs data have cooled enough to keep the odds of a rate hike this week low, even as markets price a one-in-three chance. With inflation...