India’s push for deeper US ties versus policy autonomy and security

India’s strategic ambitions in 2026 are more pronounced than ever, with a clear emphasis on deepening its partnership with the United States across multiple dimensions—diplomatic, economic, technological, and security. However, these ambitions are now increasingly juxtaposed with internal vulnerabilities that threaten to constrain its autonomy and long-term resilience. The evolving landscape underscores a complex balancing act: forging closer ties with the US while safeguarding policy independence, social cohesion, and internal stability.

Deepening US-India Relations: Strategic, Economic, and Normative Dimensions

India’s pursuit of a robust partnership with the US continues to accelerate, driven by multifaceted initiatives:

• Trade and Digital Integration:
  The Indian government remains committed to achieving zero-tariff access in critical sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, and agriculture. These measures aim to integrate India more fully into global supply chains, reducing reliance on traditional sources and fostering economic resilience. Simultaneously, efforts to harmonize digital standards—particularly in cybersecurity, cross-border data sharing, AI, 5G, and quantum computing—are central to India’s vision of shaping international digital governance. As India positions itself as a normative leader in digital standards, it seeks to balance innovation with social and ethical considerations, exemplified by initiatives like IndiaAI, which promotes an inclusive, ethical approach to AI development under its ‘Third Way’ philosophy.

• Security and Military Cooperation:
  The bilateral security relationship has expanded to encompass counter-terrorism, military interoperability exercises, and intelligence sharing. These efforts bolster regional stability but also raise questions about India’s policy autonomy, especially as it navigates its role within US-led security frameworks like the Quad. Although the Quad remains a central platform for regional security, domestic political shifts, regional tensions, and strategic recalibrations could influence India’s leadership role within the alliance, potentially affecting its independent strategic calculus.

• Talent Mobility and Visa Policies:
  Despite the US’s proposal of a $100,000 employer fee on H-1B visas, Indian professionals—particularly in IT and engineering sectors—continue to be highly sought after, illustrating deep economic interdependence. However, ongoing debates over visa fees and immigration policies reflect bilateral frictions that could impact future talent flows and cooperation. A senior analyst highlighted, “The demand for Indian professionals in the US underscores our deep integration, even as policy tensions simmer,” emphasizing resilience amid challenges.

Domestic Constraints: Challenges to Autonomy and Growth

While engagement with the US strengthens, India faces significant internal vulnerabilities that could limit its strategic freedom:

• Fiscal and Banking Sector Strains:
  Recent reports, such as "A budgetary signal as banks cannot bear it all,", highlight macro-economic pressures from stressed banking institutions, non-performing assets (NPAs), and fiscal constraints. These issues restrict the government’s capacity for large-scale reforms and infrastructure investments, thereby limiting resilience and long-term growth potential.

• Supply Chain and Energy Dependencies:
  Despite ‘Vocal for Local’ campaigns, India remains heavily reliant on Chinese imports—raw materials, electronics, and energy resources—undermining strategic autonomy. Persistent supply chain vulnerabilities and energy sector bottlenecks threaten economic stability unless addressed through comprehensive reforms that diversify sources and bolster domestic capabilities.

• Market Concentration and Labour Power:
  Investigations such as "How Modi’s policies and India’s monopolists are weakening labour power—and democracy," reveal that market dominance by a few conglomerates and reforms favoring elites are eroding labour rights, with potential long-term impacts on social stability and democratic resilience.

• Federal Governance and Regional Disparities:
  The debate around ‘double engine governments’—federation aligned between federal and state administrations—underscores ongoing federation challenges. Effective governance across diverse regions remains critical for policy coherence and addressing regional disparities.

• Refined Economic Data and Growth Outlook:
  The refined rebasing of India’s GDP, as reported by The Economic Times, indicates faster sectoral growth and structural shifts, providing a more accurate picture of economic health. While this underscores India’s growth potential, it also exposes structural vulnerabilities that require continued reform efforts.

Social Norms, Digital Governance, and Democratic Norms

India’s internal social fabric and digital governance landscape are evolving in tandem with its strategic ambitions:

• IndiaAI and Ethical AI Development:
  The IndiaAI initiative emphasizes developing inclusive and ethical AI standards, aiming to shape international AI governance. The ‘Third Way’ advocates for balancing innovation with social responsibility, ensuring that technological progress benefits all sectors of society.

• Algorithmic Welfare and Social Inclusion:
  Recognizing risks of algorithmic marginalization, legislative measures now mandate impact assessments before deploying automated welfare systems. This reflects growing awareness of social implications in digital policymaking and the need for inclusive digital governance.

• Rising Hate Speech and Platform Accountability:
  The India Hate Lab’s recent report highlights a surge in hate speech and misinformation on digital platforms, often facilitated by platform accountability gaps. On January 13, 2026, the Centre for the Study of Organized Hate (CSOH) emphasized that social media platforms frequently act as facilitators of organized hate campaigns, threatening social harmony and democratic stability. This trend risks social fragmentation, undermining internal cohesion necessary for sustained growth.

• Weakening Democratic Norms and Cultural Shifts:
  An article from Frontline discusses the ‘absence of shame’ in contemporary India, where public accountability diminishes, and policy failures or injustices no longer evoke widespread remorse. This cultural shift impacts democratic checks and public pressure, potentially weakening institutional resilience.

New Developments: Income Mobility, Inequality, and Long-term Resilience

A recent article titled "Analysing India’s cycle of deprivation and affluence - The Hindu" sheds light on income mobility dynamics during 2014-25. Key insights include:

• Persistent Cycles of Deprivation and Affluence:
  Despite significant economic growth, intergenerational mobility remains uneven. Many low-income households experience cycles of deprivation, with limited pathways to upward mobility, especially amidst rising inequality.

• Implications for Social Cohesion and Political Legitimacy:
  The cycle of deprivation fuels social discontent, undermines trust in institutions, and threatens political stability. Without targeted reforms to enhance social mobility, economic gains risk being concentrated, exacerbating inequality and social fragmentation.

• Long-term Resilience Challenges:
  Addressing such disparities is critical for India’s long-term resilience, especially as internal social divisions could weaken internal cohesion, making India more vulnerable to external shocks and geopolitical pressures.

Strategic Implications: Navigating the Future

India’s trajectory in 2026 exemplifies an ambitious pursuit of global leadership—deepening alliances like the US partnership, advancing digital governance, and fostering economic growth—while grappling with internal vulnerabilities:

• Balancing Strategic Partnerships with Autonomy:
  India must align its partnership gains with domestic reforms to preserve policy independence, especially in sensitive sectors like technology, energy, and security.

• Addressing Domestic Vulnerabilities:
  Fiscal discipline, diversification of supply chains, strengthening labour rights, and federation reforms are essential to build resilience and sustain growth.

• Upholding Democratic Norms and Social Cohesion:
  Combating hate speech, ensuring platform accountability, and fostering inclusive social policies are vital to maintain internal stability.

• Fostering Inclusive Growth and Mobility:
  Policies that bridge inequality gaps, expand access to opportunities, and enhance income mobility will be crucial for long-term legitimacy and social resilience.

In sum, India’s strategic ambition in 2026 is a test of its ability to balance external influence with internal stability. Success hinges on integrating partnership goals with domestic reforms, strengthening social cohesion, and adapting to emerging challenges. If managed effectively, India can emerge as a credible, autonomous power shaping the norms of the future; if not, internal fragmentation and strategic vulnerabilities might hinder its rise in the evolving multipolar world. The road ahead is challenging but holds the promise of a resilient, inclusive, and influential India on the global stage.