Public Pension, Retiree-Health, and Reserve Liabilities Pressure Budgets

Public pension shortfall estimates remain methodology-dependent: Equable’s 2026 work estimates $1.37T in state pension unfunded liabilities, while Milliman’s 100-plan index estimated an $877B deficit and 87.4% funded status in September. Illinois and New York City OPEB exposures underscore budget stakes; Connecticut’s surplus allocation and Hawaiʻi’s disputed taxpayer-burden shift add reporting leads, but neither establishes an imminent crunch.