Created by Jinze Gu
In-depth briefings on U.S. debt, unfunded liabilities, and looming fiscal crises
Explore the latest content tracked by U.S. Fiscal Risk Digest
Rising Treasury yields are effectively tightening policy for the Fed, but BofA warns this stems from unclear reaction functions rather than deliberate strategy, driving up risk premiums that act like a tax on borrowing costs.
CalPERS's 14.8% investment gain for 2025-26 created an immediate political windfall for unions seeking higher retirement benefits, allowing them to argue the system could afford increases.
Maryland officials tout cash surpluses while audited reports reveal a $25.7 billion shortfall and $11,200 per-taxpayer burden.
Insurance retreat signals municipal insolvency first. When private coverage vanishes, cities inherit uninsurable risks and enter a fiscal death...
Homeowners face sharp tax hikes as cities shift unfunded pension burdens onto property levies.
The $39.8 trillion national debt is forcing the Fed into an impossible spot, where raising rates to fight inflation becomes both harder and more...
Hyperscalers are ignoring 5.20% 30-year yields to fund a $1.2T AI capex wave, with $400B in projected 2027 debt issuance. Like the Treasury, they...
USPS reported a $2.5 billion net loss for Q3 2026, citing systemic challenges in its congressional business model and an expected cash depletion by...
Japan's public sector has run the world's largest unhedged carry trade—borrowing short via 75.5% of GDP in floating-rate BoJ reserves to fund long...
TBAC warned that current auction sizes create a $1.45 trillion funding shortfall in fiscal 2027–28. Treasury Secretary Bessent's heavy use of cheap...
Gov. Ned Lamont's push to raise Connecticut's pension funding from 35% to 70% while rejecting new recurring costs without revenue shows a Democratic...
A 62-year-old Illinois community-college instructor faces an irrevocable offer of roughly $100,000 to swap her 3% compounded COLA for a delayed 1.5%...
The U.S. government borrowed $800B in just three months while facing $1T in annual interest payments, with new debt additions of $3T yearly generating another $90B in interest.
Rising public safety pension obligations are squeezing municipal budgets from California to Texas, forcing trade-offs that hit taxpayers and...
Kentucky's Road Fund posted a $72.4 million shortfall in FY 2025-26 as fuel tax revenue fell 2.2% after the gas tax rate dropped to 26.4 cents per...
USPS reported retirement benefits up $324 million and retiree health benefits up $195 million in Q3 FY2026, partially offsetting other results.
Despite a $350 million state increase, Chicago Public Schools adequacy slipped to 70% from 73%, with over 700 districts regressing as low-income...
New Orleans is stretching $146.8 million in capital improvement bonds to cover 12 extra projects, freeing $36 million in operating cash for this year...
Massachusetts taxpayers could face a $1.4 billion federal clawback over improper SNAP payments, showing how state-level errors in federal programs can suddenly tighten fiscal flows and add pressure to state budgets.
