U.S. Fiscal Risk Digest

Federal Debt Spiral & Interest Cost Crisis

Federal Debt Spiral & Interest Cost Crisis

U.S. federal debt at $39.84T (101% GDP), interest costs $1.2T exceeding defense, $9.14T short-term refinancing wall. SS OASI depletion Q4 2032 with 22-28% benefit cuts. Iran war adds $87.6B deficit pressure. BofA warns Treasury selloff could resume; 30yr yield at 5.28%, term premium 1.51%. September credibility test is key time window.

Sources (2)
Updated Aug 4, 2026