Treasury $47.8T-$200T Liabs FY25 $48T vs $6T Assets/USPS FERS/CSRS Crises 2026-27; OPEB $971B-$1.48T with Ohio OP&F HRA Freeze, Alabama PEEHIP Trust Withdrawal, and NC State Health Plan Deficit Examples; IPERS CEO Scandal; Colorado PERA Bonuses Scandal; New: USPS Regulator Axing on Table; Colorado Lawmakers Move to Limit PERA Bonuses; New: Woburn OPEB $232M at 6.7% funded adds granular data. New: PSERS $41B shortfall, private equity underperformance (2.59% vs 10.06% benchmark). New: California OPEB liability dropped $13.7B to $77.8B but prefunding pause is a red flag—decrease driven by discount rate changes, not real progress. New: KY pension lawsuit settled with Blackstone for $18M, but questions remain about other hedge funds and employee lawsuits; $1.2B in risky hedge fund investments highlight systemic pension mismanagement. New: NC retirees get one-time $540 bonus instead of permanent COLA, highlighting pension governance trade-offs. New: NJ pension fund sold Geo Group bonds but still holds Palantir, small pension governance signal. New: California fiscal trainwreck—CalPERS governance failure, no IG, killed transparency bill, $3B ESG loss, Wilshire/Apollo conflict, ties to Stockton-style municipal bankruptcy risk. New granular OPEB data from Massachusetts: Wakefield 36.6% funded, Stoneham 0%, Woburn 6.7%, liabilities climbing faster than prefunding. New: WA LEOFF 1 pension fund sweep of $4B by state, retirees suing—textbook off-book liability raid. New: Methuen, MA moves to state GIC after $6.5M deficit, saving $11.2M through 2030—concrete OPEB stress example joining Haverhill and North Andover. New: Healey's Mass Wins Act raids $50-100M from PRIM pension fund; NYC Mamdani delays pension contributions—both concrete examples of pension slush fund treatment.
Key Questions
What are the projected Treasury liabilities for FY25?
Treasury liabilities are estimated between $47.8T and $200T against roughly $6T in assets for FY25. This highlights a massive insolvency gap driven by unfunded obligations including pensions and OPEB.
What pension crises are facing USPS in 2026-27?
USPS faces crises in FERS and CSRS programs, with liabilities far outpacing assets. The situation underscores broader federal pension underfunding risks.
How large is the OPEB liability range mentioned?
OPEB liabilities range from $971B to $1.48T, with specific examples including Ohio OP&F HRA freeze and Alabama PEEHIP trust withdrawal. North Carolina's State Health Plan also shows ongoing deficits.
What scandals have affected public pensions recently?
IPERS CEO scandal and Colorado PERA bonuses scandal illustrate governance failures. Additional issues include PSERS $41B shortfall and private equity underperformance.
What new regulatory actions are proposed for USPS?
Regulators are considering axing oversight mechanisms for USPS. Colorado lawmakers are also moving to limit PERA bonuses as part of reform efforts.
How has California's OPEB liability changed recently?
California's OPEB liability dropped $13.7B to $77.8B, but the decrease stems from discount rate changes rather than real funding progress. A prefunding pause raises concerns about future sustainability.
What pension issues emerged in Kentucky and New Jersey?
Kentucky settled a pension lawsuit with Blackstone for $18M amid $1.2B in risky hedge fund investments. New Jersey's teachers' pension fund holds less than 46 cents per dollar owed.
What granular OPEB data was added from Massachusetts?
New data shows Wakefield at 36.6% funded, Stoneham at 0%, and Woburn at 6.7%, with liabilities rising faster than prefunding. Methuen is moving to state GIC plans to address a $6.5M deficit.