Fed Rate Pulse

Market odds of September rate hike plunge after weak July jobs report

Market odds of September rate hike plunge after weak July jobs report

The July nonfarm payrolls report missed expectations, causing CME FedWatch odds of a September rate hike to fall from 57% to 43.9%. Economists remain divided, with some still expecting tightening. The data tests Fed Chair Warsh's less-guidance approach and adds uncertainty to the rate path.

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Updated Aug 8, 2026