Fed Rate Pulse

The forthcoming Fed minutes from last month's rate decision may shed light on officials' inflation concerns, though the piece functions mainly as a...

The Fed's Sept. 17 lift of the interest-on-reserve-balances rate to 3.90% sets a firmer floor under overnight markets, keeping the federal funds rate...

Softer-than-expected September jobs data led traders to trim bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike, driving the dollar lower on Friday.

Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the next rate move “may take more time” as higher Treasury yields signal investors are reassessing the outlook. He kept...

Senior Fed officials have delivered unusually clear signals against an October rate hike, with New York Fed President John Williams stating “there is...

Fed officials delivered unusually clear guidance this week that more data is needed before any further rate moves, triggering a swift market retreat...

Treasury yield and dollar swings are acting as a direct transmission channel for changing Fed expectations ahead of jobs data. The 10-year yield hit...

Softer-than-expected August inflation data cut the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October to 28%, down from 45% before the release and 69% a...

Could the September jobs report shift Fed expectations away from a likely October pause?

• Fed funds futures currently price a 72% chance the central...

Vice Chair Jefferson sees the economy as resilient with roughly balanced risks to growth and employment, noting unemployment near maximum employment...

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the softer-than-expected August core PCE print at 3% did little to shift his view, noting inflation has...

The dollar posted its strongest month since March as the Fed's inflation focus lifted rate expectations and bond yields.

• Softer August PCE cut...

Markets expect September nonfarm payrolls to add roughly 100,000 jobs, down from August’s 162,000.

• Weaker outcome (below 50,000 jobs, unemployment...

Softer-than-expected inflation data cut near-term Fed hike odds while New York Fed President Williams still sees one likely before year-end.

• PCE...

New York Fed President John Williams’s Buffalo remarks reinforce that inflation at 3.7 percent remains well above target due to energy conflicts and...

The September FOMC minutes, due October 7, are expected to strike a hawkish tone reflecting recent Fed speakers' unanimous support for tightening and...

Markets now price in a roughly 70% chance of a second consecutive Fed rate hike in October, lifting two-year Treasury yields and raising the...

The dollar's climb to a two-month high at 101.15 confirms tighter financial conditions via 65% odds of an October Fed hike, yet stems primarily from US-Iran tensions lifting oil above $106 rather than any new policy signal.

Philadelphia Fed opening remarks at the fintech conference discuss economic conditions and note that price stability needs attention due to underlying inflation at 2.5-3 percent, but contain no direct signal on interest-rate decisions.

Research shows 90.5% of the 4pp post-COVID surge in long-term Treasury yields occurred in just 24% of trading days around Fed communications or jobs...