Glassnode PiT study + BTC cycle edges/Santiment sentiment
Key Questions
What is the average cost of BTC loss chips?
BTC loss chips have an average cost of $93,600, down from higher levels as high-cost positions were realized. This suggests potential for rebound if price hits $93k.
What does negative sentiment indicate per Santiment?
Bitcoin bearishness hit a 5-week high (0.81 social sentiment), often a rebound signal. Santiment notes this could precede a market shift around $70k.
What is the Glassnode PiT study finding?
Glassnode's PiT (Profit & Loss in Time) for March 2026 shows cycle edges with loss chips at bottoms around $47k (deviation 1.4). It aligns with Fidelity's TradFi/AI/ETF cycle views.
What are BTC cycle performance metrics?
Day-week gains reached 308%, with models projecting $40-50k ranges. Dual momentum, Gaptick, and MAE-MFE backtests support cash-carry strategies.
What is the overall status of BTC sentiment and cycles?
Developing, with negative sentiment confirming $70k rebound and loss chips at $93.6k. PiT studies and Santiment signal potential bullish shifts.
BTC loss chips $93.6k; neg sentiment 0.81 rebound $70k; Mar2026 PiT; Fidelity cycles; day-week 308%; BTC $40-50k bottom; dual momentum; Gaptick/MAE-MFE backtests.