U.S. Debt Deficit Digest

Treasury Auction Signals

• 🔥 3-Year Note Auction Tails: The US Treasury's $58B 3-year note auction on June 9 produced a tail of 0.2 to 0.4 basis...

The June 9 auction of $58B 3-year notes tailed 0.2-0.4 basis points, marking the seventh tail in nine auctions and showing investors demanded a...

The upcoming $58bln 3-year note sale at yields near 4.19%—the highest since February 2025—could draw real-money buyers thanks to improved returns from...

Treasuries are losing safe-haven appeal as inflation fears from the Iran conflict lift energy costs and push long bonds lower while riskier debt...

Japan's ruling party panel urged more spending and a food levy freeze to shield households, explicitly prioritizing crisis relief over fiscal targets even as the BOJ plans a rate hike to 1% and considers pausing bond tapering.

Sen. John Kennedy warns Democrats will force a government shutdown over the fiscal 2027 defense budget, prioritizing welfare spending instead.
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The true national debt just hit $1 million per U.S. household, crystallizing the scale of obligations that will shape future tax burdens, service cuts, and intergenerational tradeoffs voters must weigh.

The debt ceiling limits Treasury's ability to borrow for spending Congress has already approved, not new outlays.

• When hit, new debt issuance stops...

The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report has been published.

Bond markets are pricing future disinflation from falling energy prices even as May CPI looks hot from early-month gasoline spikes.

• Yields reset...

US defense spending is escalating fiscal pressures, with the 2027 budget at $1.5 trillion and Iran war costs already at $30 billion. This compounds...

Former Illinois Senator Jim Oberweis stresses that unsustainable growth in the national debt must stop, framing it as an urgent priority while running for Congress.

• Insolvency by 2032 could trigger 24% benefit cuts averaging $500 monthly across 29 states.
• 2027 COLA estimates hit 3.9-4.2%, yet the one-year lag...

Few things will be more impactful than Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks next week, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel told Squawk Box. Investors are focused on what his comments could signal for rates and the broader economy.

US household debt now exceeds 2008 crisis peaks, with consumer borrowing driving GDP gains amid higher prices.

• Spending rises as households take on...

A 24% benefit reduction hits if the trust fund depletes in 2032.

• Massachusetts retirees face the largest cited average loss at $527 monthly
• New...

• $1 trillion cut from Medicaid and ACA to pay for tax breaks for billionaires and corporations
• Nearly 15 million Americans projected to lose health...

Strong jobs data is now bad news for stocks as investors price in Fed rate hikes, with 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5.18%—a level that preceded a...

FY27 Budget Shortfall Projection

• 🔥 CBO $294 Billion Shortfall: CBO projects a $294 billion FY27 budget shortfall that raises projected costs of...

Various U.S. debt-to-GDP ratios show 2025 values above 100% for some series and slightly below for others.

• Intragovernmental holdings create the...