U.S. Debt Deficit Digest

The trust fund is expected to run dry in 2032, after which it would no longer pay full benefits.

• Stock-market idea: An NPR Planet Money report...

The clock is ticking: the trust fund is projected to run dry in late 2032, and a fix will likely need 60 votes and both parties. The incoming...

The annual wage cap is expected to rise, so workers will likely pay Social Security taxes on more of their income. Yahoo Finance reports that...

Once the limit binds, Treasury cannot issue bonds, notes, or bills to cover expenses.

• Workaround: Bessent may suspend trust fund investments, such...

Critics question whether the budget's $142 billion in new spending over five years fits its stated goals, and their worry is less about today's...

Democrats won majorities in both the House and Senate, while Trump still controls the executive branch. The election changed who holds power, but the...

Does weak demand at a Treasury auction matter for yields? The piece asks what weak demand at the three-year auction would signal for yields, and...

Next week's inflation reports could shift rate expectations. Core CPI rose .3% last month, and higher-than-expected readings may spur an upward...

• U.S. debt is nearing $40 trillion, with a $1.2 trillion annual interest bill.
• Bessent's $6 billion buyback failed to move the $32 trillion...

Notes and bonds work similarly. Both are fixed-rate debt issued by the US government and pay interest every six months. The main difference is...

Foreign governments now hold just 25% of U.S. Treasurys, down from around 60% in 2008. The article's headline names this exodus as one reason Treasury rates have risen, so it's a piece of the rate story, not the whole explanation.

Election gains have put wealth taxes back in Washington conversation, but these remain proposals.

• Proposals, not law: The Khanna-Sanders plan would...

A missed payment is the usual test of default, but this piece argues that test is too narrow. In the older system, lenders who misjudged risk lost...

Rep. James Walkinshaw says he will press for a 2027 federal pay raise to be part of any deal that keeps the government open past December 11. The...

When market rates rise, a standard bond's price falls. A zero-coupon bond falls by a larger percentage than a coupon bond of the same maturity.

• Why...

The 4-week bill cleared at a 3.89% high yield on $115B offered, with a 2.46 bid-to-cover versus a twelve-month average of 2.84. The desk graded it...

The proposal to sell bonds directly to the central bank rests on no interest being paid, because the Treasury owns the central bank. The author notes...

Strong October jobs data helped push Treasury yields up, with traders betting the Federal Reserve will raise rates next month. Yields rose across most...

Bond investing, as this post frames it, comes down to three adjustable levers:

• Term: Shorter or longer bonds change your interest rate risk.
  -...

Higher Treasury yields are making bonds a real alternative to stocks for income. The 10-year now yields nearly 5.1%, close to the S&P 500's 5.3%...