U.S. Debt Deficit Digest

• Private payrolls grew just 30,000 in July with three-month average at 40,000, showing weak productive job creation needed for real growth.
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• Thirty-six senators voted against the 2023 debt ceiling bill, including several holding U.S. Treasury bonds whose prices recovered sharply after...

Weak demand drove specific U.S. Treasury bond yields to 2.87%, nearing recent highs amid the $1.2 trillion debt crisis and failed US-Japan yen intervention, exposing rollover risks as rates climb.

Treasury Secretary Bessent's heavy reliance on short-term T-bills to fund the $2 trillion deficit at today's lower rates (3.8% vs. 4.6-5%+ on longer...

Senate passed a bipartisan CR 90-6 to fund agencies through Dec. 11, averting an October shutdown but guaranteeing post-election fights.

• Key...

Weak July jobs data showing a 23,000 drop in nonfarm payrolls drove the biggest weekly gain in short-term Treasuries since May, with two-year yields...

Both Social Security and Medicare face reserve depletion in the early 2030s, creating a double squeeze on fixed retirement incomes.

• Social...

Governments repay individual bonds daily yet routinely refinance them with new issuance, so total national debt rarely shrinks. The US can keep...

US national debt has crossed $40 trillion against a $30 trillion economy, as the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady while the trade deficit narrowed slightly.

Treasury lifted its Q3 borrowing forecast to $739B and expects $628B in Q4, while keeping coupon sizes steady but softening language from “increases”...

Federal debt reached $39.07 trillion in Q1 2026, or 122.59% of GDP, generating a $1.247 trillion interest bill that equals 3.9% of annual output. That...

New York Fed President John Williams expects US inflation to gradually ease but keeps the option for rate hikes on the table, sustaining a hawkish policy stance that could prolong higher borrowing costs.

US-Japan coordinated intervention lets Tokyo tap its $1T+ Treasury portfolio for yen support via the FIMA repo facility without selling bonds,...

The U.S. is actively steering its largest foreign creditor's Treasury holdings through coordinated yen intervention.

• FIMA role: Japan can use the...

Senate passage of the stopgap CR until Dec. 11 reveals both parties prioritizing political survival over stable governance. Republicans and Democrats...

Strong U.S. growth and sticky inflation are pushing Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year reaching 4.75% and 30-year hitting a 19-year high above...

• Bessent's gambit pushes the Fed to lift the $60B cap on Japan's FIMA facility, exposing Treasury's reliance on emergency backstops.
• Investors warn...

The US bares its financial weak spot, a stark reminder of structural debt and deficit risks that leave taxpayers and global markets more exposed.

The trust fund is largely an accounting IOU, not real savings, exposing the pay-as-you-go reality when reserves run out.

• Personal stakes: Older...

Federal deficits remain stuck at 5-6% of GDP despite near-full employment, pushing public debt past 100% of GDP.

• Fiscal side: Washington issues...