U.S. Debt Deficit Digest

• Purchasing power destroyed for anyone owning LT USTs past 10 years
• ZB priced in gold down ~80% since global CBs stopped net UST buys in Q3 2014
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• Partial DHS shutdown ongoing; Dems' deal funds most but excludes ICE, lacks bipartisan buy-in.
• GOP struggles for second reconciliation bill...

• Senate Budget Committee hearing on March 25, 2026, discusses Social Security facts and path forward, with Sens. Cassidy (R-LA) and Whitehouse...

Yield surge timeline amplifies U.S. debt servicing crisis:

• Late Feb: 10y yields rise 45bps amid Iran war escalation (Op. Epic Fury, Hormuz closure,...

• Markets underprice sustained inflation despite rising U.S. Treasury yields
• Julia Wang warns of stagflationary shock, amplifying federal debt...

Republicans push second reconciliation bill for tax/spending package and permitting reform on energy projects like pipelines/transmission.

• High...

GOP Fiscal Claims Crumble: Sold as "restoring sanity," OBBBA actually adds $4.7T to 2026-35 deficits—20% of CBO's $23.1T total.

Cuts vs Costs: $1.8T...

• Taxpayer burden rises: Prolonged negotiations increase costs for taxpayers
• Market disruptions: Debt limit delays unsettle financial markets
• Core issue: Congress caps federal borrowing; slow action on limit hikes risks escalate

Against high debt and high interest rates, the U.S. must choose: prioritize controlling the fiscal deficit or continue stimulating. This voter-relevant tradeoff pits fiscal restraint against growth needs.

• Hedge fund Treasury exposure surges: Positions hit $4.1T in 2025 (up $1T), risking rapid unwinds that stress the vital U.S. Treasury market.
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• $44T net insolvency: Liabilities exceed assets; GAO denies clean audit for 15th year, signaling borrowing cost spikes.
• $130T total obligations:...

• Dire outlook ignored: Deficits at 6% of GDP for next decade, debt to 120% GDP by 2036 (from ~100% now), debt service hitting $2T/year or 4.6%...

Partisan hypocrisy exposed: Democrats push fiscal responsibility on defense but ignore entitlements causing vast majority of debt/deficits.

• $2T+ on...

Treasury market fragility exposed by Cayman Islands—proxy for leveraged hedge fund basis trades—snapping up ~40% of new UST notes/bonds since 2022.

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Debt exploding: $39T now, $40T by fall elections, deficits to $3.1T by 2036 driving $64T total.

- Taxpayer hit: $1T+ annual interest crowds out...

Intergenerational theft alert: Rising debt slams youth hardest—they'll struggle to buy homes or start businesses, with less say now but longest...

Lawmakers push a 3% deficit-to-GDP target amid $2T annual deficits (6% GDP) and interest costs topping defense spending.

• No current benchmark...

Taxpayer hit: Inherited $14.5T 2021-2031 deficit projection; left with $21.2T after $6.6T in new spending like stimulus ($2.1T) and veterans benefits...

National debt interest now claims 1 in 5 tax dollars, setting a fiscal cliff trend.

• Hits $1T by 2026 (3.3% GDP), doubles to $2.1T by 2036.
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US federal debt is becoming ‘alarmingly unsustainable’ amid Iran war-driven spending, sparking outcry over Washington's rapid sovereign debt accumulation and analysts' doubts on Trump's political will to cut the deficit.