Treasury Yield Volatility + Fed Chair Shift + Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship

30yr yield at 5.21%, 10yr at 4.69% after bond market challenges Warsh's credibility. Fed holds at 3.6% with 9-3 split; Warsh hawkish. TIC data shows shift to yield-sensitive private buyers. Shutdown odds 41-48%, Thune soft-pedals debt ceiling, Trump demands filibuster elimination. Counterpoint: duration risk not default risk. 30yr above 5% for 27 days this year, longest since 2007. Fitch warns US debt-to-GDP to 131.5% by 2030.