U.S. Debt Deficit Digest

• House Republicans plan a continuing resolution next week to avert a shutdown through December
• Debt ceiling deadlock prompts urgent appeals and...

The PROMISE Act creates a strict timeline forcing Congress to vote on a 50-year solvency plan before the 2032 trust fund depletion triggers automatic...

Conservatives see indexing capital gains to inflation as a tax cut for investors that could be achieved via Treasury action. This executive route...

• June's $120B deficit pushed FY2026 total near $1.37T even as spending rose 23% YoY.
• Headline CPI fell to 3.5% largely from collapsing energy...

Several warning signs now align, showing structural fiscal strain beyond any single metric.

• Debt-to-GDP has crossed 122%, the highest since WWII...

Social Security Trust Fund Acceleration

• 🔥 Shortfall One Year Earlier: The OASI trust fund is now projected to deplete in 2032 due to the One Big...

Social Security's retirement trust fund now faces depletion a year sooner than expected, mainly due to lower birth rates, reduced immigration, and...

Senate Republicans worry Democrats will force a government shutdown weeks before midterms.

• McConnell's absence delays appropriations markups and...

Stablecoins are quietly becoming a structural buyer of short-term US Treasuries as foreign governments diversify away. Issuers like Tether now hold...

30-year Treasury auctions show split demand that could speed fiscal cliff risks.

• Domestic buyers pulled back, leaving auctions lackluster and...

Three angles expose the program's pressure points for retirees and taxpayers.

• Trust fund depletion hits in 2032, triggering a 22% benefit cut...

Lower inflation from fading supply shocks and oil prices near $80 could keep 10-year yields range-bound at 4.4-4.6%, temporarily easing bond market...

• McConnell's hospital stay since June 14 turns the Appropriations Committee's 15-14 GOP edge into a 14-14 tie, letting Democrats block bills until...

Debt Service and Borrowing Scale

• 🔥 Monthly Borrowing and Weekly Interest: The U.S. Treasury has borrowed $155 billion every month of fiscal...

Three pressures are colliding to worsen the U.S. fiscal trajectory:

• Record borrowing continues at $155 billion monthly, with interest costs hitting...

McConnell's hospitalization since June 14 leaves the Senate Appropriations Committee evenly split on a one-vote edge, threatening to block Trump's...

Trump's OBBBA tax cuts and immigration crackdown have moved the OASI Trust Fund depletion from 2033 to Q4 2032.

• The bill reduces Social Security...

Despite a 9% US crude surge from Iran tensions, the 10-year Treasury yield shows no meaningful reaction.

• Yield forecasts unchanged: Median outlook...

• Interest payments quadrupled to $970 billion as debt doubled since 2015
• 30-year auction yielded 5.058% with international buyers taking 78%
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A proposed payroll tax hike on all wages aims to plug Social Security's shortfall but risks broader economic damage without solving the core...