HBM/power shortages & DC chokepoints
Key Questions
What memory shortages are impacting the AI supply chain?
ADATA warns of a potential 10-year DRAM shortage with GDDR7 costs tripling and RTX 50 Super delayed. NVIDIA has raised GDDR7 and GDDR6 pricing due to HBM demand.
How severe is the power demand forecast for data centers?
BNEF doubled its US data center power forecast to 194 GW by 2035. The House Committee approved the Ratepayer Protection Act amid these constraints.
What packaging investments is NVIDIA making in the US?
NVIDIA committed $1.5B to Amkor for advanced US packaging capacity. This is a capacity-security deal to support next-gen AI chips.
How are HBM deals locking in supply for NVIDIA?
NVIDIA and SK Hynix have a $500B+ HBM agreement while Samsung's $200B Broadcom deal creates a combined $950B supply lock-in.
What price increases are occurring in China due to memory tightness?
RTX 5090D prices rose 22.5% and Colorful distributor prices are 40-50% above MSRP. H100 rental rates remain high at 78k-85k.
Why is NVIDIA skipping a 2026 gaming GPU release?
NVIDIA is shifting focus to data center amid HBM shortages and is skipping a new gaming GPU in 2026, ending a nearly 30-year streak.
What is the impact of TSMC's capex surge on the market?
TSMC reported record earnings but its stock sold off after announcing a $60-64B capex hike. This signals increased scrutiny on capex ROI and potential margin pressure for NVIDIA.
How are memory costs affecting retail GPU pricing globally?
NVIDIA raised GPU kit costs across the GeForce lineup due to HBM starving GDDR7 supply. The GDDR6/7 crisis is spreading and confirmed by China rental pricing.
Memory crisis: ADATA warns of 10-year DRAM shortage, GDDR7 costs tripling, RTX 50 Super delayed. NVIDIA raised GPU kit costs across GeForce lineup. BNEF power forecast doubled to 194 GW by 2035. GPU cloud utilization at 5%. Vera Rubin efficiency metric (tokens/MW) addresses power constraints. NVIDIA and SK Hynix $500B+ HBM deal; Samsung $200B deal with Broadcom. Memory cost hikes hitting retail in China. Tensormesh KV cache software improves TTFT 7x. LG Electronics CDU certification.