Escalating US–China Strategic Competition: Technology, Resources, and Proliferation Risks in a Multipolar World

The global geopolitical landscape is increasingly defined by a fierce rivalry between the United States and China, centered on technological dominance, supply chain security, and control over critical minerals. This competition has swiftly evolved from economic posturing into a complex web of hybrid warfare, proliferation concerns, and regional destabilization, notably in Africa. Recent developments underscore the urgency for coordinated international action to prevent escalation and preserve regional and global stability.

Technological Rivalry and Cyber Warfare: A New Cold War

At the heart of this rivalry lies the race for technological supremacy. China's rapid strides in artificial intelligence (AI), submarine production, and dual-use technologies threaten to undermine US dominance. Notably, China has surpassed the US in submarine manufacturing, signaling a significant shift in naval power that could alter strategic balances in contested waterways like the Indo-Pacific.

China's ambitions extend into AI innovation, aiming to lead in emerging areas with dual civilian-military applications, thus fueling fears of an AI arms race. Meanwhile, both nations engage intensively in cyber operations, with disinformation campaigns, espionage, and covert cyberattacks becoming commonplace. These hybrid tactics threaten to destabilize critical infrastructure and erode strategic stability, as highlighted in recent analyses such as the Middle-Ground Amidst Great (Cyber) Power Competition report.

Supply Chain Resilience and Critical Minerals: A Global Resource Race

The competition for critical minerals—including rare-earth elements, nickel, uranium, and gold—has intensified. Both the US and China are racing to secure these resources, vital for advanced electronics, renewable energy, and military hardware. Countries like Indonesia have responded by tightening controls over strategic resources such as nickel, aiming to capitalize on their mineral wealth amid mounting external pressures.

However, the most concerning development is the exploitation of weak governance and illicit networks in regions like Sudan, which boasts vast mineral deposits—including uranium—attracting Chinese entities involved in clandestine activities. Recent reports suggest Chinese involvement in secret nuclear testing and shadow nuclear activities in Sudan, raising alarms over potential violations of nonproliferation norms. These illicit networks exploit Sudan’s porous borders and fragile institutions, turning it into a potential proliferation hotspot.

Proliferation and Nonproliferation Challenges

The erosion of arms control frameworks further complicates the picture. The recent expiration of the New START treaty has weakened verification mechanisms, enabling Russia to bolster its nuclear forces amid ongoing military efforts in Ukraine and support for regional allies. Simultaneously, Russia’s activities in Africa and its backing of Iran’s nuclear ambitions heighten proliferation risks.

Iran’s persistent pursuit of nuclear capabilities and destabilizing regional actions, compounded by waning trust in Moscow, threaten to destabilize the broader nuclear landscape. These developments underscore the importance of robust verification and international cooperation to prevent proliferation.

Geopolitical Risks and Hybrid Warfare: An Evolving Threat Landscape

Hybrid warfare tactics—disinformation campaigns, cyber disruptions, covert logistics—are increasingly employed to destabilize adversaries and undermine verification efforts. Both China and Russia exploit weak governance structures, especially in regions like Sudan, to facilitate illicit mineral extraction and nuclear activities.

Recent commentary, including insights from Trivium Weekly, highlights that despite some signs of fragile stabilization in US–China relations, the underlying strategic competition remains intense. The risk of miscalculation or escalation persists, especially as both powers continue to employ covert and overt destabilization tactics.

Recent Developments and Strategic Implications

The China Factor

China’s ongoing efforts to advance its AI capabilities, expand submarine fleets, and secure critical minerals exemplify its comprehensive approach to strategic competition. The recent surge in Chinese influence in Africa, particularly Sudan, signals a willingness to leverage regional weaknesses for nuclear and mineral exploitation.

US Responses

The US has launched initiatives like “Batteries and Borders”, emphasizing critical mineral security and supply chain diversification. There is a renewed focus on strengthening domestic manufacturing, alliances, and soft-power tools to counterbalance Chinese influence. These efforts aim to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains and address vulnerabilities exposed by recent disruptions.

Proliferation and Arms Control

The weakening of arms control regimes—notably the expiration of New START—combined with Russian military activities and clandestine nuclear links in Sudan, heightens proliferation risks. The possibility of Sudan evolving into a nuclear proliferation hub, fueled by Chinese involvement, presents a profound threat to international security.

Hybrid Warfare and Cyber Operations

Both China and Russia continue to employ hybrid tactics, including disinformation, cyberattacks, and covert logistics. These tactics complicate verification efforts, destabilize regions, and increase the likelihood of miscalculation, especially in fragile states like Sudan.

Current Status and Future Outlook

While recent commentary suggests a fragile stabilization in US–China relations, the underlying strategic competition remains intense. The interconnected nature of technological rivalry, resource security, and proliferation risks underscores the need for coordinated international responses.

Key priorities include:

• Enhancing verification and intelligence-sharing to detect illicit proliferation activities.
• Reviving and strengthening arms control agreements and establishing transparent monitoring frameworks.
• Disrupting illicit networks exploiting Sudan’s mineral wealth and regional instability.
• Diversifying supply chains to reduce reliance on adversarial actors and bolster resilience against disruptions.

Failure to address these interconnected challenges risks transforming Sudan into a nuclear flashpoint with potentially catastrophic consequences. The international community must act decisively to prevent escalation, safeguard regional stability, and uphold global nonproliferation norms.

Conclusion

The evolving US–China strategic competition, intertwined with resource security and proliferation concerns, presents one of the most significant security challenges of our time. As both superpowers leverage hybrid tactics and regional influence, the risk of miscalculation grows. Coordinated diplomatic, security, and nonproliferation efforts are vital to navigate this complex landscape and prevent the emergence of new nuclear conflicts in an increasingly multipolar world.