Russia’s Arctic strategy and the wider resource race involving great powers

Russia’s Arctic strategy is rapidly evolving into a central element of its broader geopolitical and military ambitions, intertwining resource control, strategic infrastructure, and regional dominance. As the melting ice opens new shipping lanes and access to critical minerals, Russia is ramping up its militarization and infrastructure development in the Arctic to secure its interests amid rising international competition.

Militarization and Infrastructure Expansion in the Russian Arctic

Russia has prioritized establishing a formidable military presence across its Arctic territories, recognizing the region's strategic importance. Key elements include:

• Reinforcing military bases on Franz Josef Land and Novaya Zemlya, which serve as operational hubs for Arctic defense and power projection.
• Expanding the Northern Sea Route (NSR), a vital maritime corridor that is becoming increasingly accessible due to climate change, allowing Russia to control a strategic shipping lane connecting Europe and Asia.
• Deployment of advanced weapon systems such as hypersonic missiles—notably the Avangard system—capable of Mach 20 speeds and high maneuverability, challenging existing missile defenses and threatening Western deterrence.
• The deployment of Borei-class submarines as part of Russia’s nuclear triad, ensuring second-strike capability and strategic stability in the region.

Russia’s strategic signaling extends to information warfare and cyber operations, aimed at destabilizing Western cohesion and undermining regional security. The buildup is complemented by efforts to control vital Arctic resource zones and secure shipping lanes in the face of melting ice and increased economic activity.

Linking Arctic Policy to Global Resource and Power Rivalries

Russia’s Arctic ambitions are tightly linked to the broader resource race involving great powers, particularly the United States, China, and the European Union. The melting Arctic ice has exposed vast reserves of critical minerals and energy resources, making the region a focal point for economic and strategic competition.

• Critical minerals, essential for modern technology and military systems, are now more accessible, prompting Russia to accelerate permitting and development, with national security considerations taking precedence over environmental concerns. As one recent article notes, "Permitting in 2026 isn’t about environmental impact statements anymore. It’s about resource security and strategic control."
• Energy routes, especially the NSR, offer shorter, more secure pathways for oil and gas exports, reducing dependence on traditional routes vulnerable to geopolitical pressure. Control over these routes enhances Russia’s ability to project power and influence Eurasian energy markets.

Russia’s cooperation with China in the Arctic further complicates the geopolitical landscape. Joint naval exercises and resource extraction initiatives demonstrate a strategic partnership aimed at counterbalancing U.S. and NATO influence. This collaboration heightens regional tensions, especially with NATO members like Norway and Canada, who are increasingly concerned about the militarization of the Arctic and the potential for conflict over these vital resources.

European and NATO Responses

In response to Russia’s Arctic expansion and military buildup, NATO and European nations are enhancing their defenses:

• Increased defense spending, with some countries like the Netherlands advocating for up to 5% of GDP on military capabilities.
• Strengthening force posture through modernization of Arctic bases, deployment of ice-capable vessels, and expansion of surveillance systems to monitor Russian activities.
• Intensified military exercises in the region aim to demonstrate deterrence and improve interoperability among allied forces.
• Investment in technologies such as AI, autonomous systems, and cyber defense aims to counter hybrid threats and ensure technological sovereignty.

Simultaneously, efforts are underway to revive and strengthen arms control frameworks, notably negotiations to renew the New START Treaty, which expired in 2026. Experts warn that without renewed verification regimes covering emerging technologies like hypersonic weapons and autonomous systems, the risk of proliferation and escalation will increase.

Implications for Global Security

Russia’s Arctic strategy, marked by military modernization, infrastructure expansion, and resource control, signifies a broader pattern of strategic escalation. As the region becomes more accessible and contested, the potential for misunderstandings or miscalculations grows, especially given the development of advanced weapon systems and weakening arms control regimes.

The Arctic’s transformation into a geopolitical theater underscores the necessity for transparency, confidence-building measures, and regional resilience. Developing verification protocols for new military technologies and fostering diplomatic engagement are crucial steps to prevent conflicts and manage competition peacefully.

In conclusion, Russia’s strategic moves in the Arctic—driven by a desire to secure critical minerals, energy routes, and regional dominance—pose complex challenges to international security. This convergence of military, economic, and diplomatic initiatives demands a coordinated response from NATO and the global community to mitigate risks and ensure stability in this increasingly pivotal region.