US-Europe Relations in a Rapidly Shifting Global Order: Alliances, Autonomy, and Technological Power

The geopolitical landscape of the 2020s is experiencing an unprecedented transformation driven by rapid technological advances, evolving regional alliances, and emerging security threats. Central to these shifts is the complex and increasingly nuanced relationship between the United States and Europe—a partnership historically anchored in American military dominance and European reliance—that now faces mounting pressures to adapt in a multipolar, AI-driven world.

The Evolving Transatlantic Partnership: Balancing Autonomy and Alliance Cohesion

For decades, NATO has served as the cornerstone of European security, with U.S. military supremacy providing a deterrent umbrella. However, recent developments reveal a decisive move by European nations toward greater strategic independence. French President Emmanuel Macron exemplifies this trend, emphasizing Europe's need to develop autonomous defense capabilities. His diplomatic outreach, including recent visits to India where he underscored European military self-sufficiency, signals a deliberate attempt to reduce reliance on U.S. support.

This push for sovereignty is fueled by growing skepticism about U.S. commitments, especially as perceptions emerge that Washington is pivoting more towards the Indo-Pacific region—a shift that European leaders view as a potential weakening of their security guarantees. European countries are investing heavily in modernizing their militaries: France focusing on resilience and strategic independence, and Germany significantly increasing defense budgets to foster autonomous military capacities. These efforts aim to counter hybrid threats—including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and autonomous weapons—that threaten European security and stability.

Meanwhile, in Washington, policymakers like Secretary of State Marco Rubio have voiced concerns over fragmentation within the transatlantic alliance. Rubio warns that diverging strategic priorities threaten to undermine NATO’s deterrence capabilities, potentially emboldening adversaries such as Russia and China amid an increasingly multipolar threat environment. This rising tension raises a fundamental question: Can the U.S. and Europe sustain a cohesive alliance when European nations seek greater autonomy?

NATO, Ukraine, and the Future of Deterrence

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a pivotal catalyst reshaping NATO’s strategic posture. The war has exposed issues of burden-sharing, force readiness, and deterrence strategies, prompting debates on how to sustain support for Ukraine without risking escalation into broader conflicts. Recent assessments warn of resource strains and the challenges of prolonged military aid, especially amid hybrid threats like cyberwarfare, disinformation, and autonomous systems.

Analysts such as Michael Kofman emphasize the urgent need for NATO to modernize its capabilities—particularly in countering hybrid threats—by developing interoperability standards and setting norms for autonomous military platforms. NATO is actively accelerating efforts to manage risks associated with AI-driven weapons and integrate cutting-edge technologies into its defense architecture.

However, recent NATO meetings have highlighted less engagement from U.S. defense officials, reflecting tensions over the alliance’s strategic direction and Europe's push for greater independence. The alliance’s effectiveness will depend on balancing robust support for Ukraine with maintaining unity and credible deterrence in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

The Technological Revolution: AI, Autonomous Weapons, and the Need for Norms

A technological revolution is fundamentally transforming warfare, marked by the rapid proliferation of AI, autonomous systems, and cyber capabilities. These innovations present both opportunities for enhanced defense and significant risks.

Recent reports detail a surge in state-sponsored cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, underscoring the urgent need for resilient cybersecurity frameworks. Countries are debating doctrines around autonomous weapons systems, emphasizing ethical concerns, control, and escalation risks. Key issues include:

• Control and accountability over autonomous military systems.
• The risk of miscalculations due to autonomous decision-making.
• The push for international norms to regulate AI and autonomous weapons.

Organizations like RAND Corporation warn that the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could accelerate technological races, deepening power asymmetries and security dilemmas. The normative gaps—particularly over responsibility and control—pose serious risks of miscalculation, especially as autonomous military systems become more prevalent and sophisticated.

Resource and Supply-Chain Sovereignty: Critical Minerals, Deep-Sea Resources, and Regional Compute Hubs

As nations recognize technological sovereignty as essential to strategic stability, efforts to reduce dependence on U.S. and Chinese ecosystems are intensifying. Countries are investing in regional compute hubs, such as CoreWeave, to foster domestic AI innovation and secure data infrastructure.

At the same time, disruptions in critical supply chains—exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and US-China tensions—highlight the importance of securing essential minerals like rare earth elements and precious metals involved in deep-sea mining. These resources are vital for autonomous systems, high-performance computing, and AI hardware.

Think tanks such as The Stimson Center emphasize the geopolitical race to control deep-sea resources and critical minerals, prompting nations to develop sovereignty frameworks for data security, interoperability, and resilience. This resource competition feeds into the broader contest for technological dominance and economic influence.

Energy and Infrastructure Resilience for AI and Military Systems

The energy demands of AI infrastructure and modern military systems necessitate robust energy solutions. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and next-generation nuclear technologies are increasingly viewed as reliable, low-carbon power sources capable of powering autonomous systems and military bases in contested or remote environments.

In addition, renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaics, are being integrated into resilient infrastructure designs to ensure operational continuity during crises. These investments are critical for sustaining autonomous operations and maintaining strategic advantages in contested regions.

Geopolitical Realignments and Diplomatic Engagements

Recent developments underscore a reorientation of global influence and alliance strategies:

• The EU’s diplomatic efforts, led by figures like Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia, focus on strengthening EU’s strategic autonomy and deepening cooperation with allies to counter external threats. Kallas has emphasized building resilient, autonomous defense capabilities and secure supply chains to address geopolitical vulnerabilities.
• The U.S.-India partnership continues to deepen through joint military exercises, naval deployments in the Indo-Pacific, and technology collaborations designed to secure critical sea lanes and counter Chinese influence. India's diplomatic balancing act—maintaining relations with Russia while aligning with Western democracies—adds complexity to regional dynamics.
• Notably, China’s outreach to Europe has intensified, exemplified by Xi Jinping’s recent meeting with German Chancellor Merz. The CFR’s analysis highlights China's efforts to expand influence through economic and strategic ties, while Russian President Vladimir Putin signals continued interest in leveraging technological and diplomatic forums to bolster Russia’s position amid Western sanctions and regional tensions.

Norm Fragmentation and Ethical Challenges in AI

As AI capabilities proliferate, diverging regulatory approaches raise concerns about norm fragmentation—a fragmentation that could hinder interoperability, trust, and cooperation. Authoritarian regimes increasingly utilize AI for surveillance, internal control, and geopolitical advantage, often with opaque systems that challenge democratic norms.

A recent viral video titled "Geopolitics just entered your AI stack" illustrates how geopolitical interests are embedded within AI vendor ecosystems, complicating international cooperation. Leaders like U.S. diplomat Nicholas Burns emphasize that technology should uphold democratic values, yet rising geopolitical rivalries threaten to deepen norm fragmentation, risking escalation and misunderstanding.

Current Status and Strategic Implications

The convergence of technological innovation, regional realignments, and security threats positions the US-Europe alliance at a critical juncture. To avoid fragmentation and mitigate risks of miscalculation, the alliance must prioritize:

• Coordinated burden-sharing and updated deterrence strategies that reflect new technological realities.
• Resilient supply chains and energy infrastructure capable of supporting AI-enabled military systems.
• Multilateral norm-setting for autonomous weapons, cybersecurity, and ethical AI development.

The recent Xi–Merz meeting and the US-India collaborations demonstrate both opportunities for strategic diversification and challenges to alliance cohesion. European nations, under leaders like Kaja Kallas, are actively pursuing greater strategic autonomy, while the U.S. expands its engagement in the Indo-Pacific to counterbalance Chinese influence.

In sum, as AI and autonomous systems accelerate competition, US-Europe relations will hinge on balancing sovereignty with alliance cohesion, leading responsible norm development, and building resilient, interoperable systems. These measures are essential to safeguard collective security amid multipolar power dynamics and technological upheavals.

The current geopolitical climate underscores the necessity for bold, coordinated action rooted in democratic values and open standards. Embracing technological sovereignty while maintaining alliance resilience will be pivotal to navigating an increasingly complex, AI-driven world—a challenge that requires adaptability, foresight, and unified purpose.