Evolving US grand strategy, spheres of influence, and the changing global order

Evolving US Grand Strategy in a Multipolar World: Spheres of Influence and the Role of Global Institutions

As the international landscape shifts into 2026, the United States faces a complex challenge: navigating a rapidly transforming global order characterized by rising powers, emerging technological frontiers, and evolving norms of sovereignty and influence. This period marks a decisive moment for U.S. grand strategy, which must balance competing visions of power, spheres of influence, and the role of international institutions.

Competing Visions of US Power and the Multipolar Order

Historically, U.S. foreign policy has oscillated between primacy and multilateral engagement. Today, the end of unipolar dominance has led to a multipolar world where China, India, and other emerging actors** assert influence across regions and domains.

• China pursues a strategy rooted in “winning by waiting,” leveraging long-term diplomacy and regional influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road. Beijing emphasizes digital sovereignty, exemplified by developments such as Qwen3.5, an AI model aimed at setting international standards and securing technological independence. Its military modernization encompasses cyber, space, and traditional domains, making China a formidable competitor in both conventional and hybrid warfare.

• India is rising as a regional power with deepening U.S. ties. Its efforts in trade diversification, supply chain resilience, and military modernization position it as a balancer in the Indo-Pacific, advocating for strategic autonomy. India’s soft power and technological sectors further bolster its influence, challenging Chinese dominance and complementing U.S. partnerships.

• The United States is reinforcing its alliances and multilateralism to adapt to this environment. Its focus on strengthening the Quad and regional forums like ASEAN aims to manage tensions and uphold a rules-based order. U.S. strategy emphasizes diplomatic resilience and innovative cooperation to sustain influence without overreach.

The Role of Spheres of Influence and Geopolitical Competition

The resurgence of spheres of influence is evident in areas like Taiwan, the Arctic, and critical mineral supply chains.

• Taiwan remains a geopolitical linchpin due to its advanced semiconductor industry. The U.S. and allies are investing in domestic chip manufacturing and diversifying supply routes to mitigate risks posed by China’s ambitions to either disrupt or incorporate Taiwan’s industry.

• The Arctic, opened by climate change, is becoming a strategic frontier with Russia, China, and the U.S. vying for access to shipping routes and mineral deposits. Past proposals, such as the 2019 US interest in purchasing Greenland, underscore Arctic ambitions as regional tensions intensify.

• The competition for critical minerals, vital for renewables, electronics, and military hardware, is escalating. Countries are securing resource-rich territories and building resilient supply chains to withstand geopolitical disruptions.

The Role of Global Institutions and the Future of International Norms

The United Nations and other global institutions face mounting questions about their relevance and effectiveness in this new era. Experts like Justin Snyder highlight the challenges of accountability and norm enforcement amid diverging national interests.

• Multilateral forums such as ASEAN, ARF, and the Quad are increasingly vital for conflict management and crisis response, serving as platforms to foster cooperation amidst strategic competition.

• The debate over global governance of emerging technologies, particularly AI, is central. China’s push to lead in digital sovereignty contrasts with Western initiatives like the EU’s "AIR – EU#6" program, which promotes ethical standards and international norms. Experts warn that AI arms races and the deployment of autonomous weapons pose destabilization risks—highlighting the urgent need for verification protocols and norms to prevent escalation.

Strategic Domains and Emerging Risks

Beyond cyberspace and AI, several domains are critical:

• Semiconductors and Taiwan: The “Silicon Shield” underscores Taiwan’s strategic importance. Efforts are underway to diversify supply chains by building domestic chip manufacturing and reducing dependency on single sources.

• Space and Lunar Activities: Major powers are investing in lunar bases and asteroid mining, prompting calls for international governance frameworks to manage extraterrestrial resource utilization and prevent conflicts over space assets.

• The Arctic: Melting ice opens new shipping lanes and mineral deposits, intensifying strategic rivalry. The U.S. and allies are keen to secure access while managing the environmental and geopolitical risks.

Long-term Outlook and Strategic Implications

The evolving landscape demands that the U.S. balance hard power with diplomatic innovation. Fostering international norms—particularly in AI governance, space resource management, and critical infrastructure security—is essential to mitigate risks and prevent conflicts.

The recent article “Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21st century” underscores that spheres of influence remain a core element of strategic competition, but their boundaries are increasingly fluid and contested.

In conclusion, U.S. grand strategy must adapt to this multipolar environment by strengthening alliances, promoting international norms, and investing in technological resilience. The future stability of the global order hinges on effective cooperation in areas like governance of emerging technologies, space exploration, and critical resource management—a challenge that requires both firm strategic posture and diplomatic ingenuity.