The role of AI and emerging technologies in reshaping security, development, and power projection

The Rapid Evolution of AI and Emerging Technologies Reshaping Global Power Dynamics

As the landscape of international security and development shifts under the influence of artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging technologies, key powers are reconfiguring their strategies to maintain influence, sovereignty, and resilience. Central to this transformation are considerations around Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), technological competition in regions like Africa and India, and the strategic use of AI in major geopolitical arenas such as Russia and the upcoming 2026 Milan–Cortina Winter Olympics.

AGI’s Strategic Implications and Global Competition

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)—the hypothetical ability of AI systems to perform any intellectual task a human can—presents profound implications for global security and geopolitics. As RAND's analysis highlights, the emergence of AGI could fundamentally alter power balances, enabling nations with advanced AI capabilities to project influence across domains such as cyber, military, and economic spheres. The race to develop AGI has thus become a central element of tech rivalry, with countries vying for normative leadership and technological dominance.

Diverging standards and norms for autonomous weapons and AI ethics threaten to fragment the international landscape. Democracies tend to emphasize human rights-based norms, advocating for transparency and oversight, while authoritarian regimes often pursue opaque, expansionist agendas—deploying AI for surveillance, control, and strategic advantage. This normative divergence risks miscalculations and escalation in the highly competitive environment.

Tech Competition in Africa and India

The global technological contest extends beyond traditional centers, with Africa and India emerging as critical battlegrounds. In Africa, regional efforts focus on reducing dependency on Western and Chinese technologies through local AI ecosystems, compute hubs, and infrastructure development. These initiatives aim to foster independent innovation, enhance cyber resilience, and secure critical resources.

India, meanwhile, is positioning itself uniquely by leveraging talent, market access, and strategic geopolitics. As noted in recent analyses, India holds distinct AI opportunities—including a large, skilled workforce and a burgeoning tech market—that U.S. and China cannot easily replicate. India’s balancing act—maintaining strategic ties with Russia while deepening Western alliances—further underscores its potential as a pivotal player in the AI-driven geopolitics of the future.

Russia’s Tech Narratives and Major Events as Arenas for AI-Driven Cyber Conflict

Russia’s ambitions in quantum computing, AI, and cybersecurity are shaping narratives around technological sovereignty and cyber dominance. Its leadership emphasizes "technology of the future", signaling intentions to harness AI for strategic advantage. As Putin addressed the "Technology of the Future" forum, Russia underscored its focus on integrating emerging tech into national security and economic development.

Major international events, such as the 2026 Milan–Cortina Winter Olympics, serve as testbeds for AI and cyber capabilities. The Olympics, with their high-profile status, are vulnerable to cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns. Experts warn that AI-driven cyber threats targeting such global events could disrupt operations, influence public perception, and test the resilience of host nations’ defenses.

AI’s Environmental Footprint and the Need for Sustainable Innovation

While technological advancement offers strategic advantages, it also presents challenges, notably AI’s environmental footprint. The environmental costs—power consumption, water usage, and resource extraction—are increasingly scrutinized. As AI systems grow more complex, the power demands for data centers and high-performance computing escalate, raising concerns about sustainability.

Europe, cognizant of these issues, is investing in resilient energy infrastructure—including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and renewables—to support AI-driven military and civilian systems. Ensuring energy security is fundamental to maintaining operational resilience in contested regions.

Conclusion: Navigating a Multipolar, AI-Driven Future

The integration of AI and emerging technologies into security, development, and power projection is transforming the international order. Countries are racing not only to develop AGI but also to establish norms, secure critical resources, and build resilient infrastructure. The divergence in regulatory approaches—particularly concerning autonomous weapons and AI ethics—poses significant challenges for interoperability and trust among allies.

Major geopolitical events and regional rivalries, from Russia’s technological ambitions to Africa’s and India’s strategic positioning, exemplify how AI-driven cyber conflict and technological sovereignty are becoming central to national security strategies. The upcoming Olympics and other high-profile gatherings will serve as critical testing grounds for AI-enabled cyber defenses and disinformation countermeasures.

Success in this new era hinges on effective alliance management, normative leadership, and sustainable innovation. Europe’s pursuit of technological sovereignty and defense autonomy, alongside the U.S.’s strategic recalibration, will shape whether the global order remains stable or fractures further under the weight of technological competition. As the world navigates this AI-driven transformation, those who can align innovation with ethical standards and resilience will define the future of global power and security.